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The GEO GroupGEO +1.15%60 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.17% as of Jun. 2026, which is 59% below its 10-year median of 10.21. GuruFocus rates GEO with a GF Score™ of 60/100 and a GF Value™ of $19.19 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 723 Business Services companies, The GEO Group ranks worse than 72.89% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. The GEO Group's forward rate of return for was 4.17%.
The historical rank and industry rank for The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
GEO'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.21 Med: 10.21 Max: 30.6
Current: 3.77
During the past 13 years, The GEO Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 30.60. The lowest was 2.21. And the median was 10.21.
GEO's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 72.89% of 723
companies
in the Business Services industry
Industry Median: 13.72
vs GEO: 3.77
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
The GEO Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
The GEO Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The GEO Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
GEO vs BRC, BCO, CXW: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The GEO Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
The GEO Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
1.16171429
/
29.55
+
0.0024
=
4.17 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 4.17% mean?
The GEO Group (GEO) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 4.17% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. This is 59% below median its historical median of 10.21. Over the past decade, The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 2.21 to 30.60. According to the industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #527 out of 723 companies in the Business Services industry, placing it in the top 72.9%.
Is The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
The GEO Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 4.17% is 59% below median its 10-year median of 10.21. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 2.21 to a high of 30.60. The Business Services industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.72. The GEO Group's value of 4.17% is 69.6% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #527 out of 723 companies in the Business Services industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, The GEO Group has a GF Score™ of 60/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The GEO Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to BRC and BCO?
According to the Business Services industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #527 out of 723 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places The GEO Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.72. The GEO Group's value of 4.17% is 69.6% below this benchmark. Historically, The GEO Group's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 2.21 to 30.60 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 10.21 vs. the industry median of 13.72, The GEO Group has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Business Services company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Business Services companies is 13.72, based on 723 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. The GEO Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 4.17% is 69.6% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. For the Business Services industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.72 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. The GEO Group's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.17%, which is 59% below median its own 10-year median of 10.21. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The GEO Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group (GEO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $19.19, compared to a current price of $31.79 — trading 65.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.17%, which is 59% below median its 10-year median of 10.21 and 69.6% below the Business Services industry median of 13.72. The GEO Group's overall GF Score™ is 60/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The GEO Group (GEO), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.17% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The GEO Group (GEO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $31.79 is trading 65.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of $19.19.
GuruFocus considers The GEO Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for GEO:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 4.17% (59% below median its 10-year median of 10.21)
GF Value™: $19.19 vs. price of $31.79 (65.7% above fair value)
Industry Position: 69.6% below the Business Services median (#527 of 723)
No single metric tells the full story. See the GEO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services. The company operates in U.S, Australia and South Africa.
60GF Score
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