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CienaMEX:CIEN +1.33%68 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.30% as of Jul. 2026, which is 88% below its 10-year median of 19.66. GuruFocus rates MEX:CIEN with a GF Score™ of 68/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN1,760.47 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,715 Hardware companies, Ciena ranks worse than 54.29% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Ciena's forward rate of return for was 2.30%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:CIEN'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -7.59 Med: 19.66 Max: 24.38
Current: 2.4
During the past 13 years, Ciena's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.38. The lowest was -7.59. And the median was 19.66.
MEX:CIEN's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 54.29% of 1715
companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 4.32
vs MEX:CIEN: 2.40
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Ciena (MEX:CIEN) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Ciena Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Ciena Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MEX:CIEN vs HPE, UI, LITE: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ciena Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Hardware Industry
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Ciena Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.30% mean?
Ciena (MEX:CIEN) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.30% as of Jul. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ciena and its competitors. This is 88% below median its historical median of 19.66. According to the industry distribution chart, Ciena ranks #931 out of 1715 companies in the Hardware industry, placing it in the top 54.3%.
Is Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Ciena's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.30% is 88% below median its 10-year median of 19.66. The Hardware industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.32. Ciena's value of 2.30% is 46.8% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ciena ranks #931 out of 1715 companies in the Hardware industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Ciena has a GF Score™ of 68/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ciena's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to HPE and UI?
According to the Hardware industry distribution chart, Ciena ranks #931 out of 1715 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Ciena in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.32. Ciena's value of 2.30% is 46.8% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 19.66 vs. the industry median of 4.32, Ciena has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Hardware company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Hardware companies is 4.32, based on 1,715 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ciena's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 2.30% is 46.8% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ciena and its competitors. For the Hardware industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.32 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ciena's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.30%, which is 88% below median its own 10-year median of 19.66. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ciena stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ciena (MEX:CIEN) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN1,760.47, compared to a current price of MXN5,411.00 — trading 207.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.30%, which is 88% below median its 10-year median of 19.66 and 46.8% below the Hardware industry median of 4.32. Ciena's overall GF Score™ is 68/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ciena (MEX:CIEN), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.30% as of Jul. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ciena (MEX:CIEN) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ciena stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN5,411.00 is trading 207.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN1,760.47.
GuruFocus considers Ciena to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:CIEN:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 2.30% (88% below median its 10-year median of 19.66)
GF Value™: MXN1,760.47 vs. price of MXN5,411.00 (207.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 46.8% below the Hardware median (#931 of 1715)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:CIEN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ciena is a leader in high-speed optical connectivity, providing systems, components, and automation software for telecom providers and enterprises, such as data centers, to enable long-distance connectivity. The company operates through four primary business segments: networking platforms, platform software and services, Blue Planet automation software, and global services. While telecom carriers remain important customers, cloud providers and hyperscalers now drive a significant portion of the business. To meet the demands of AI data centers, customers are adopting Ciena's WaveLogic 6 platform, the first to support 1.6 terabits-per-second capacity.
68GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MEX:CIEN
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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