Fonterra Co-operative Group (NZSE:FCG) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

NZSE:FCG Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd NZSE:FCG
65 GF Score
Price NZ$4.25
GF Value NZ$2.98
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Fonterra Co-operative Group Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Fonterra Co-operative Group is: Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock.

Fonterra Co-operative Group  (NZSE:FCG) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Fonterra Co-operative Group Risk Assessment Related Terms

NZSE:FCG vs KHC, GIS, HRL: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Fonterra Co-operative Group's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Fonterra Co-operative Group Risk Assessment vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Fonterra Co-operative Group's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fonterra Co-operative Group's Risk Assessment falls into.


NZSE:FCG
65GF Score
Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd NZSE:FCG
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is Fonterra Co-operative Group (NZSE:FCG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fonterra Co-operative Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of NZ$4.25 is trading 42.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of NZ$2.98. GuruFocus considers Fonterra Co-operative Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NZSE:FCG:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: NZ$2.98 vs. price of NZ$4.25 (42.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NZSE:FCG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Fonterra Co-operative Group Business Description

Address 109 Fanshawe Street, Auckland Central, Auckland, NTL, NZL, 1010
Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd operates predominantly in the international dairy industry. The company is involved in the collection, manufacture, and sale of milk and milk-derived products through its ingredients, Consumer and Foodservice channels. The company's reportable segments are Global Markets, Greater China, and Core Operations and the majority of the revenue is generated from its core operations segment. Its primary geographic markets is Asia, China, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and the Rest of the world.
65GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NZSE:FCG

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NZ$4.25
Price
NZ$2.98
GF Value