MorinagaTSE:2201 -1.85%85 Altman Z-Score is 3.88 as of Jul. 11, 2026, which is 5% above its 10-year median of 3.68. GuruFocus rates TSE:2201 with a GF Score™ of 85/100 and a GF Value™ of 円3,103.02 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,929 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, Morinaga ranks better than 65.73% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Good Sign:
Altman Z-score of 3.89 is strong.
Morinaga has a Altman Z-Score of 3.88, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Altman Z-Score is strong.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Morinaga's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
TSE:2201'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.32 Med: 3.68 Max: 4.02
Current: 3.89
During the past 13 years, Morinaga's highest Altman Z-Score was 4.02. The lowest was 3.32. And the median was 3.68.
Morinaga (TSE:2201) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Morinaga Altman Z-Score Related Terms
Morinaga Altman Z-Score Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Morinaga's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
TSE:2201 vs MDLZ, HSY, TR: Altman Z-Score Comparison
For the Confectioners subindustry, Morinaga's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Morinaga Altman Z-Score vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Morinaga's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Morinaga's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Morinaga's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
0.2135
+
1.4
*
0.4089
+
3.3
*
0.1127
+
0.6
*
2.7122
+
1.0
*
1.0476
=
3.88
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
Morinaga (TSE:2201) has a Altman Z-Score of 3.88 as of Jul. 11, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Morinaga and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 3.68. Over the past decade, Morinaga's Altman Z-Score has ranged from 3.32 to 4.02. According to the industry distribution chart, Morinaga ranks #661 out of 1929 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, placing it in the top 34.3%.
Is Morinaga's Altman Z-Score too high?
Morinaga's current Altman Z-Score of 3.88 is near median its 10-year median of 3.68. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 3.32 to a high of 4.02. The Consumer Packaged Goods industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.85. Morinaga's value of 3.88 is 36.1% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Morinaga ranks #661 out of 1929 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Morinaga has a GF Score™ of 85/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Morinaga's Altman Z-Score compare to MDLZ and HSY?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, Morinaga ranks #661 out of 1929 companies for Altman Z-Score. This puts Morinaga in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.85. Morinaga's value of 3.88 is 36.1% above this benchmark. Historically, Morinaga's own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 3.32 to 4.02 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 3.68 vs. the industry median of 2.85, Morinaga has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Consumer Packaged Goods companies is 2.85, based on 1,929 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Morinaga's current Altman Z-Score of 3.88 is 36.1% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Morinaga and its competitors. For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 2.85 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Morinaga's current Altman Z-Score is 3.88, which is near median its own 10-year median of 3.68. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Morinaga stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Morinaga (TSE:2201) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円3,103.02, compared to a current price of 円2,656.00 — trading 14.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 3.88, which is near median its 10-year median of 3.68 and 36.1% above the Consumer Packaged Goods industry median of 2.85. Morinaga's overall GF Score™ is 85/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Morinaga (TSE:2201), the current Altman Z-Score is 3.88 as of Jul. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Morinaga (TSE:2201) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Morinaga stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of 円2,656.00 is trading 14.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円3,103.02.
GuruFocus considers Morinaga to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for TSE:2201:
Altman Z-Score: 3.88 (near median its 10-year median of 3.68)
GF Value™: 円3,103.02 vs. price of 円2,656.00 (14.4% below fair value)
Industry Position: 36.1% above the Consumer Packaged Goods median (#661 of 1929)
No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:2201 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Morinaga & Co Ltd is a Japan-based confectionery company. It has developed a diverse range of confectionery products, canned soft drinks and ice cream that are delicious, fun, and healthy. The company's products are divided into five main divisions, Confectioneries, Foods, Frozen Desserts, Weider, and Healthcare. Confectionaries include Morinaga Biscuits, Chocoball chocolate, Dars chocolate, Koeda chocolate, and HI-CHEW candy. Foods include Morinaga Cocoa; Frozen Desserts include Choco Monaka Jumbo; Weider products include Weider in Jelly; and Healthcare products include Seisho-sabo, Kenpo-shukan, and Collagen drink.
85GF Score
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