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Apple Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $31.75 (As of Jun21)
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As of Jun21, Apple's earnings power value is $31.75. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -360.06

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Apple Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Apple Annual Data
Trend Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 18.10 17.99 21.07 27.09 28.75

Apple Quarterly Data
Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 28.04 28.75 29.05 29.97 31.75

Competitive Comparison

For the Consumer Electronics industry, Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Apple Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Consumer Electronics industry and Technology sector, Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Apple Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Apple's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 271,765
DDA 11,101
Operating Margin % 25.85
SGA * 25% 4,498
Tax Rate % 17.63
Maintenance Capex 9,195
Cash and Cash Equivalents 61,696
Short-Term Debt 16,039
Long-Term Debt 105,752
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 16,782

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 25.85%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $ Mil, Average Operating Margin = 25.85%, Average Adjusted SGA = 4,498,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 271,765 * 25.85% +4,498 = $74752.373554 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 17.63%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $74752.373554 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 74752.373554 * ( 1 - 17.63% ) = $61575.772667636 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 11,101 * 0.5 * 17.63% = $978.404262 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 61575.772667636 + 978.404262 = $62554.176929636 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Apple's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $9,195 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Apple's current cash and cash equivalent = $61,696 Mil.
Apple's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 105,752 + 16,039 = $121791 Mil.
Apple's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 16,782 Mil.

Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun21 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 62554.176929636 - 9,195)/ 9%+61,696-121791 )/16,782
=31.75

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 31.747853464652-146.06 )/31.747853464652
= -360.06%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Apple  (NAS:AAPL) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Apple Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Apple Business Description

Apple logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334220 SIC : 3571
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (Mac), smartwatches (Apple Watch), AirPods, and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple's total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.
Executives
Kondo Chris officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Maestri Luca officer: Senior Vice President, CFO 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Adams Katherine L. officer: SVP, GC and Secretary APPLE INC. 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Williams Jeffrey E officer: COO ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Cook Timothy D director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O APPLE INC ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Jung Andrea director C/O APPLE INC ONE APPLE PARK WAY CUPERTINO CA 95014
Wagner Susan director C/O BLACKROCK, INC. 40 EAST 52ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10022
Bell James A director C/O THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY 2211 H.H. DOW WAY MIDLAND MI 48674
Levinson Arthur D director C/O GENENTECH INC 1 DNA WAY MS 49 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990
Sugar Ronald D director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 1650 LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Gore Albert Jr director C/O APPLE INC 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Iger Robert A director C/O WALT DISNEY CO 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Ahrendts Angela J officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Srouji Johny officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Federighi Craig officer: Senior Vice President 807 11TH AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089

Apple Headlines

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