AFE (American Financial Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


What is American Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

American Financial Group AFE 80 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates AFE with a GF Score™ of 80/100. The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

American Financial Group  (NYSE:AFE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

American Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

AFE vs CNA, AIZ, ORI: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

American Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


American Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.72

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
American Financial Group (AFE) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
American Financial Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, American Financial Group has a GF Score™ of 80/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CNA and AIZ?
American Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Insurance industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Insurance company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. American Financial Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is American Financial Group stock overvalued right now?
American Financial Group (AFE) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. American Financial Group's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For American Financial Group (AFE), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

American Financial Group Business Description

Other Exchanges AFG:USAQFI:Germany
Address 301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45202
American Financial Group Inc is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it is engaged in the property and casualty insurance business, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. The group operates through two segments: Property and Casualty Insurance, which generates maximum revenue, and Other. The Property and Casualty Insurance segment is further divided into different sub-segments, such as Property and transportation, Specialty casualty, and Specialty financial. These sub-segments offer insurance coverage for vehicles and commercial property, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses, workers' compensation insurance, risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, trade credit insurance, and other insurance products.