GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Critica Ltd (ASX:CRI) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Critica (ASX:CRI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 43.29% (As of Mar. 03, 2025)


View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

What is Critica Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 43.29%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Critica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-0.27

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=43.29%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Critica  (ASX:CRI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Critica Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Critica's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Critica Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
16 Altona Street, Level 2, West Perth, Perth, WA, AUS, 6005
Critica Ltd is dedicated to discovering and developing critical mineral deposits to feed global demand for the minerals that are vital to modern technology and the green energy transition. The company is advancing Jupiter and the Brothers Project, which is strategically located in a mining precinct in Western Australia. Discovered in late 2023, the clay-hosted, rare-earth project is just 250Km east of the port at Geraldton. It boasts high grades of total rare earth oxides combined with an incredibly low prevalence of thorium and uranium across the significant area of the discovery.

Critica Headlines