What is e.l.f. Beauty Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where e.l.f. Beauty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
e.l.f. Beauty Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.48 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.06% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
e.l.f. Beauty Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
570 10th Street, Oakland, CA, USA, 94607
e.l.f. Beauty Inc is a multi-brand beauty company that offers inclusive, accessible, clean, vegan and cruelty-free cosmetics and skin care products. The Company's mission is to make the best of beauty accessible to every eye, lip, face, and skin concern. The company offers cosmetic accessories for women which include eyeliner, mascara, false eyelashes, lipstick, the foundation for the face, moisturizer, cleanser, and other tools through its stores and e-commerce channels. The products that the company sells are marketed under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, W3LL PEOPLE and Keys Soulcare brands. It carries out sales within the US and internationally, out of which maximum revenue is generated from the US.
Executives
| Maureen C. Watson |
director |
570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Levitan Lauren Cooks |
director |
570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Tarang Amin |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: See remarks |
C/O SCHIFF NUTRITION INTERNATIONAL, INC., 2002 SOUTH 5070 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84104 |
| Jennifer Catherine Hartnett |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Joshua Allen Franks |
officer: SVP, Operations |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Richard G Wolford |
director |
|
| Kory Marchisotto |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Scott Milsten |
officer: See remarks |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Mandy J Fields |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Beth M Pritchard |
director |
BORDERS GROUP INC, 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108 |
| Tiffany F. Daniele |
director |
C/O USHG ACQUISITION CORP., 853 BROADWAY, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Gayle Tait |
director |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, 3RD FLOOR, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
| Baruch Richard F Jr |
officer: See remarks |
SCHIFF NUTRITION INTERNATIONAL INC, 2002 SOUTH 5070 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84104-4726 |
| Sabrina Simmons |
director |
GAP INC., 2 FOLSOM STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105 |
| Kenneth Jr Mitchell |
director |
C/O E.L.F. BEAUTY, INC., 570 10TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607 |
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