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Evolution Petroleum (AMEX:EPM) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.04% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Evolution Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Evolution Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Evolution Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Evolution Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Evolution Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Evolution Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.80

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Evolution Petroleum  (AMEX:EPM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Evolution Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Evolution Petroleum (AMEX:EPM) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Evolution Petroleum Corp (AMEX:EPM) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1155 Dairy Ashford Road, Suite 425, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
Evolution Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas company operating in the US. It is engaged primarily in the acquisition, exploitation, and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas, onshore in the United States. The company's revenues are primarily generated from its crude oil, natural gas and NGL production from the Jonah Field in Sublette County, Wyoming; the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Barnett Shale located in North Texas; the Hamilton Dome Field in Wyoming; and the Delhi Field in Northeast Louisiana. The revenue generated by the company includes royalty, mineral and working interests.
Executives
John Mark Bunch officer: COO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Kelly Beatty officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Myra C Bierria director 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Ryan Stash officer: SVP & CFO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Roderick A. Schultz officer: Chief Accounting Officer 4621 PINERIDGE STREET, HOUSTON TX 77009
Marjorie Anne Hargrave director 999 18TH STREET, SUITE 1925N, DENVER CO 80202
Jason E. Brown officer: President & CEO 1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 6700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Marran H. Ogilvie director 599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Joe officer: VP, Chief Admin. Officer 2500 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Jvl Advisors, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 10,000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
Randall D Keys officer: President, CFO & Treasurer 3 HICKORY SHADOWS DR, HOUSTON TX 77055
Peninsula Capital Management Inc director 235 PINE STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kelly William Loyd director 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
William Dozier director 3000 SAGE #1312, HOUSTON TX 77056
Gene G Stoever director 5415 GRAYSTONE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77069