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FMIVU (Forum Merger IV) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 50.00% (As of Dec. 14, 2024)


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What is Forum Merger IV Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Shell Companies subindustry, Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Diversified Financial Services Industry

For the Diversified Financial Services industry and Financial Services sector, Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Forum Merger IV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Forum Merger IV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Forum Merger IV  (NAS:FMIVU) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Forum Merger IV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Forum Merger IV Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Forum Merger IV Corp (NAS:FMIVU) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
ZT NAAC TIOA NFYS RXRA LEGA ACRO MACC ACAH TRTL GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1615 South Congress Avenue, Suite 103, Delray Beach, FL, USA, 33445
Website
https://www.forummerger.com
Forum Merger IV Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Bank Of America Corp /de/ 10 percent owner BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Bofa Securities, Inc. 10 percent owner 100 N TRYON ST, NC1-007-14-30, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Steven Berns director TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
David Boris director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-CEO, CFO C/O TRIO MERGER CORP., 777 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marshall Kiev director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-CEO, President 135 EAST 57TH STREET 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard Katzman director KAZ INC, 1775 BROADWAY SUITE 2405, NEW YORK NY 10019
Neil Goldberg director 135 EAST 57TH STREET 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Tory Kiam director 1615 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 103, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445
Forum Capital Management Iv Llc director, 10 percent owner 1615 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 103, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445
Forum Investors Iv Llc director, 10 percent owner, other: *Director by Deputization 1615 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 103, DELRAY BEACH FL 33445