What is Compuware Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Software - Application subindustry, Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Compuware's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Compuware Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Compuware (FRA:CWR) Business Description
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Compuware Corp a Michigan corporation was incorporated in 1973. The Company delivers services and software that enable its customers' important technologies to perform at their peak. It delivers the solutions through software that is installed and run on its customers' owned hardware and applications and through a Software as a Service ('SaaS') model accessed via its hosted networks. It has six business segments: Application Performance Managemen (APM), Mainframe, Changepoint, Uniface, Professional Services and Covisint Application Services ('Covisint'). Its Compuware Application Performance Management ('Compuware APM') consists of its solutions for optimizing the performance of web, non-web, mobile, streaming and cloud applications. Its Mainframe Software Products improve the productivity of development, maintenance and support teams in application analysis, testing, defect detection and remediation, fault management, file and data management, data compliance and application performance management in the IBM z/OS environment. Its Changepoint software combines professional services automation with project portfolio management capabilities to give customers complete visibility into projects, investments and resources for informed business planning and financial control. Its Uniface solution is Compuware's Rapid Application Development environment for building, renewing and integrating some of the complex enterprise applications. Its Covisint application services provide a cloud engagement platform for enabling organizations to securely connect, engage and collaborate with large, distributed communities of customers, business partners and suppliers. Its products and services are used by the IT departments and lines of business of a of commercial and government organizations. Its competitors include BMC Software Inc., CA, Inc., International Business Machines ('IBM'), Hewlett-Packard Company, Keynote Systems, Inc., Accenture, Computer Sciences Corporation, HP Enterprise Services, Analysts International Corporation and Infosys Technologies.
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