What is Glimcher Realty Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the REIT - Retail subindustry, Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Glimcher Realty Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Glimcher Realty Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Glimcher Realty Trust (FRA:GRY) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Glimcher Realty Trust is a self-administered and self-managed Maryland real estate investment trust which was formed on September 1, 1993. The Company and its affiliates are engaged in owning, leasing, acquiring, developing and operating a portfolio of retail properties consisting of regional and super regional malls and community shopping centers. At December 31, 2013, the Company owned material interests in and managed 28 properties - 25 wholly-owned and 3 partially owned through joint ventures which are located in 15 states. The Properties contain an aggregate of approximately 19.3 million square feet of gross leasable area of which approximately 95.6% was occupied at December 31, 2013. The Malls provide a range of shopping alternatives to serve the needs of customers in all market segments. The Company's Malls are in various formats such as enclosed regional malls, open-air retail centers, and outlet centers. Malls are generally anchored by multiple department stores such as Belk's, The Bon-Ton, Boscov's, Dick's Sporting Goods, Dillard's, Elder-Beerman, Herberger's, JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's, Saks, Sears, and Von Maur. Mall stores, most of which are national retailers, include Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Apple, Bath & Body Works, Express, Finish Line, Foot Locker, Forever 21, H&M, Hallmark, Kay Jewelers, The Limited, lululemon athletica, Pacific Sunwear, and Victoria's Secret. The Malls also have additional restaurants and retail businesses, such as Benihana, Cheesecake Factory, P.F. Chang's, and Red Lobster, located along the perimeter of the parking areas. The Company's Community Centers are designed to attract local and regional area customers and are typically anchored by a combination of discount department stores or supermarkets which attract shoppers to each center's smaller shops. The tenants at the Company's Community Centers typically offer day-to-day necessities and value-oriented merchandise. Many of the Community Centers have retail businesses or restaurants located along the perimeter of the parking areas. There are numerous shopping facilities that compete with the Company's Properties in attracting retailers to lease space.
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