Glimcher Realty Trust (FRA:GRY) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Glimcher Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Glimcher Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Glimcher Realty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Glimcher Realty Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Glimcher Realty Trust (FRA:GRY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Glimcher Realty Trust (FRA:GRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.glimcher.com

Glimcher Realty Trust is a self-administered and self-managed Maryland real estate investment trust which was formed on September 1, 1993. The Company and its affiliates are engaged in owning, leasing, acquiring, developing and operating a portfolio of retail properties consisting of regional and super regional malls and community shopping centers. At December 31, 2013, the Company owned material interests in and managed 28 properties - 25 wholly-owned and 3 partially owned through joint ventures which are located in 15 states. The Properties contain an aggregate of approximately 19.3 million square feet of gross leasable area of which approximately 95.6% was occupied at December 31, 2013. The Malls provide a range of shopping alternatives to serve the needs of customers in all market segments. The Company's Malls are in various formats such as enclosed regional malls, open-air retail centers, and outlet centers. Malls are generally anchored by multiple department stores such as Belk's, The Bon-Ton, Boscov's, Dick's Sporting Goods, Dillard's, Elder-Beerman, Herberger's, JCPenney, Kohl's, Macy's, Saks, Sears, and Von Maur. Mall stores, most of which are national retailers, include Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Apple, Bath & Body Works, Express, Finish Line, Foot Locker, Forever 21, H&M, Hallmark, Kay Jewelers, The Limited, lululemon athletica, Pacific Sunwear, and Victoria's Secret. The Malls also have additional restaurants and retail businesses, such as Benihana, Cheesecake Factory, P.F. Chang's, and Red Lobster, located along the perimeter of the parking areas. The Company's Community Centers are designed to attract local and regional area customers and are typically anchored by a combination of discount department stores or supermarkets which attract shoppers to each center's smaller shops. The tenants at the Company's Community Centers typically offer day-to-day necessities and value-oriented merchandise. Many of the Community Centers have retail businesses or restaurants located along the perimeter of the parking areas. There are numerous shopping facilities that compete with the Company's Properties in attracting retailers to lease space.

Glimcher Realty Trust (FRA:GRY) Headlines

No Headlines