What is ViroPharma, Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Biotechnology subindustry, ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ViroPharma,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
ViroPharma, Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
ViroPharma, (FRA:VPH) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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ViroPharma, Inc. was incorporated in Delaware in September 1994 and commenced operations in December 1994. It is a biotechnology company which develops and commercializes products that address serious diseases, used by physician specialists or in hospital settings. The Company's main development programs include C1 esterase inhibitor and a non-toxigenic strain of C. The Company markets and sells Cinryze in the United States for routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks in adolescent and adult patients with hereditary angioedema. Cinryze is a C1 esterase inhibitor therapy for routine prophylaxis against HAE, also known as C1 inhibitor deficiency, a rare, severely debilitating, life-threatening genetic disorder. Cinryze was obtained in October 2008, and On 8 January 2010, the company obtained expanded rights to commercialize Cinryze and future C1-INH derived products in certain European countries and other territories throughout the world as well as rights to develop future C1-INH derived products for additional indications. The Company also markets and sells Vancocin HCl capsules, the oral capsule formulation of vancomycin hydrochloride, in the U.S. and its territories. Vancocin is a potent antibiotic approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, to treat antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by Clostridium difficile infection, or C. difficile, and enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains. The Company's product development portfolio is consists of programs such as C1 esterase inhibitor [human], maribavir for cytomegalovirus infection, VP20621: prevention of recurrent CDAD and VP20629: treatment of Friedreich's Ataxia. The Company is working on developing further therapeutic uses; potential additional indications in other C1 mediated diseases, and alternative modes of administration for C1 esterase inhibitor. It is also developing VP20621 for the treatment and prevention of CDAD. On September 30, 2011, it entered into a license agreement for the worldwide rights of Intellect Neurosciences, Inc. to its clinical stage drug candidate, VP-20629, which is a naturally occurring, small molecule that has potent anti-oxidant properties that can protect against neurodegenerative disease. Its main competitors include both public and private entities, including well-known, large pharmaceutical companies, chemical companies, biotechnology companies and research institutions.
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