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ViroPharma, (FRA:VPH) Predictability Rank


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What is ViroPharma, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


ViroPharma, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ViroPharma, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ViroPharma, (FRA:VPH) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
ViroPharma, Inc. was incorporated in Delaware in September 1994 and commenced operations in December 1994. It is a biotechnology company which develops and commercializes products that address serious diseases, used by physician specialists or in hospital settings. The Company's main development programs include C1 esterase inhibitor and a non-toxigenic strain of C. The Company markets and sells Cinryze in the United States for routine prophylaxis against angioedema attacks in adolescent and adult patients with hereditary angioedema. Cinryze is a C1 esterase inhibitor therapy for routine prophylaxis against HAE, also known as C1 inhibitor deficiency, a rare, severely debilitating, life-threatening genetic disorder. Cinryze was obtained in October 2008, and On 8 January 2010, the company obtained expanded rights to commercialize Cinryze and future C1-INH derived products in certain European countries and other territories throughout the world as well as rights to develop future C1-INH derived products for additional indications. The Company also markets and sells Vancocin HCl capsules, the oral capsule formulation of vancomycin hydrochloride, in the U.S. and its territories. Vancocin is a potent antibiotic approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, to treat antibiotic-associated pseudomembranous colitis caused by Clostridium difficile infection, or C. difficile, and enterocolitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains. The Company's product development portfolio is consists of programs such as C1 esterase inhibitor [human], maribavir for cytomegalovirus infection, VP20621: prevention of recurrent CDAD and VP20629: treatment of Friedreich's Ataxia. The Company is working on developing further therapeutic uses; potential additional indications in other C1 mediated diseases, and alternative modes of administration for C1 esterase inhibitor. It is also developing VP20621 for the treatment and prevention of CDAD. On September 30, 2011, it entered into a license agreement for the worldwide rights of Intellect Neurosciences, Inc. to its clinical stage drug candidate, VP-20629, which is a naturally occurring, small molecule that has potent anti-oxidant properties that can protect against neurodegenerative disease. Its main competitors include both public and private entities, including well-known, large pharmaceutical companies, chemical companies, biotechnology companies and research institutions.

ViroPharma, (FRA:VPH) Headlines

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