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Goldpac Group (HKSE:03315) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.00% (As of Mar. 27, 2025)


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What is Goldpac Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Goldpac Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


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Goldpac Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-11.06

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Goldpac Group  (HKSE:03315) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Goldpac Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Goldpac Group Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Goldpac Group Ltd (HKSE:03315) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
No. 56 Gloucester Road, 13th Floor, Bank of East Asia, Room 1301, Harbour View Center, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Goldpac Group Ltd offers solutions to secure payment systems, embedded software and security products, data management services, card issuance systems, multi-function terminals, and custom turnkey solutions covering financial services. The operating segments of the group are Embedded software and secure payment products, which is the key revenue-driving segment, includes embedded software and secure payment products for smart secure payment, and the Platform and service segment which involves the provision of data processing, equipment, system platforms and other total solutions for customers in a wide business range including financial, government, healthcare, transportation and retails by leveraging Fintech.
Executives
Cititrust Private Trust (cayman) Limited 2301 Trustee
Golden Lake Investment Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Goldpac International (holding) Limited
Golden Wellness Investment Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Jian
Lu Run Ting 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Ling Wai Lim 2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Lu Runyi 2101 Beneficial owner
Agende Des Participations De L'etat (ape) 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Thales 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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