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MCS (Marcus) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.02% (As of Dec. 11, 2024)


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What is Marcus Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Entertainment subindustry, Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Marcus's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Marcus Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.38

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Marcus  (NYSE:MCS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Marcus Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Marcus Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 East Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1900, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202-4125
Marcus Corp is engaged in two business segments, which are Theatres and Hotels and Resorts. The Theatre segment operates multiscreen motion picture theatres in Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio ands others, a family entertainment center in Wisconsin and a retail center in Missouri; Hotels and Resorts segment owns and operates full-service hotels and resorts in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Nebraska and manages full-service hotels, resorts and other properties in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas, Nevada, California, and North Carolina. It generates maximum revenue from the Theatres segment.
Executives
Diane M Gershowitz director, 10 percent owner
Thomas F Kissinger officer: General Counsel and Secretary
Michael Reade Evans officer: Pres., Marcus Hotels & Resorts 100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Mark A Gramz officer: Pres., Marcus Theatres Corp* 100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Austin M Ramirez director ONE MAIN STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Brian Jay Stark director 3600 SOUTH LAKE DRIVE, ST. FRANCIS WI 53235
Katherine M. Gehl director C/O GEHL FOODS, N116 W15970 MAIN STREET, GERMANTOWN WI 53022
Bruce J Olson director, officer: Group Vice President
Chad M Paris officer: CFO & Treasurer 833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Gregory S Marcus officer: Senior Vice President 100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Rolando B Rodriguez officer: Pres. & CEO - Marcus Theatres C/O AMC ENTERTAINMENT INC, 920 MAIN ST, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Douglas A Neis officer: CFO and Treasurer
David M Baum director 784 MORRIS TURNPIKE #367, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Vss-southern Holdings Llc 10 percent owner C/O VERONIS SUHLER STEVENSON, 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip L Milstein director 390 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10022