Roblox (MEX:RBLX) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.18% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


MEX:RBLX Roblox Corp MEX:RBLX
61 GF Score
Price MXN856.18
GF Value MXN1,498.08
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Roblox Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Roblox MEX:RBLX 61 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:RBLX with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN1,498.08 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Roblox  (MEX:RBLX) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Roblox Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


MEX:RBLX vs TTWO, EA, PLTK: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Electronic Gaming & Multimedia subindustry, Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Roblox Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Interactive Media Industry

For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


MEX:RBLX
61GF Score
Roblox Corp MEX:RBLX
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Roblox Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.31

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.18%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.18% mean?
Roblox (MEX:RBLX) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.18% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Roblox's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%. Overall, Roblox has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to TTWO and EA?
Roblox's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.18% can be compared against companies in the Interactive Media industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Interactive Media company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Interactive Media industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Roblox's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Roblox stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roblox (MEX:RBLX) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN1,498.08, compared to a current price of MXN856.18 — trading 42.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%. Roblox's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Roblox (MEX:RBLX), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Roblox (MEX:RBLX) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Roblox stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN856.18 is trading 42.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN1,498.08. GuruFocus considers Roblox to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for MEX:RBLX:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.18%
  • GF Value™: MXN1,498.08 vs. price of MXN856.18 (42.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 61/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:RBLX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Roblox Business Description

Address 3150 South Delaware Street, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403
Roblox operates a free-to-play online video game platform with nearly 150 million daily active users. This platform has spawned a virtual universe and a Roblox economy based on the Robux currency. The platform houses millions of games from a wide range of creators—spanning from young gamers themselves to professional development studios. Roblox offers creators the tools, publishing abilities, and platform for their games, enabling anyone to create a game. Creators earn money when gamers make optional in-game purchases within their games and by offering space for real-world advertising, and Roblox earns revenue primarily by taking a cut of these earnings.
61GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:RBLX

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN856.18
Price
MXN1,498.08
GF Value