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Apple Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Apple's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consumer Electronics subindustry, Apple's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Apple Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Apple's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Apple's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Apple Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.30

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Apple  (NAS:AAPL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Apple Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Apple Business Description

Apple logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 334220 SIC : 3571
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (Mac), smartwatches (Apple Watch), AirPods, and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple's total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.
Executives
Kondo Chris officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Maestri Luca officer: Senior Vice President, CFO 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Adams Katherine L. officer: SVP, GC and Secretary APPLE INC. 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Williams Jeffrey E officer: COO ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Cook Timothy D director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O APPLE INC ONE INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Jung Andrea director C/O APPLE INC ONE APPLE PARK WAY CUPERTINO CA 95014
Wagner Susan director C/O BLACKROCK, INC. 40 EAST 52ND STREET NEW YORK NY 10022
Bell James A director C/O THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY 2211 H.H. DOW WAY MIDLAND MI 48674
Levinson Arthur D director C/O GENENTECH INC 1 DNA WAY MS 49 SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990
Sugar Ronald D director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 1650 LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Gore Albert Jr director C/O APPLE INC 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Iger Robert A director C/O WALT DISNEY CO 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Ahrendts Angela J officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Srouji Johny officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP CUPERTINO CA 95014
Federighi Craig officer: Senior Vice President 807 11TH AVENUE SUNNYVALE CA 94089

Apple Headlines

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