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Forward Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 1.38% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Forward Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.38%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Forward Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Forward Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Forward Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Forward Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Forward Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.27

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=1.38%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Forward Industries  (NAS:FORD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Forward Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Forward Industries Business Description

Forward Industries logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
700 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 100, Hauppauge, New York, NY, USA, 11788
Forward Industries Inc is a provider of carrying and protective solutions. It designs and distributes product protection for handheld electronic devices. Forward Industries sells soft-sided carrying cases for blood glucose diagnostic kits and portable consumer electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, personal computers, notebooks, and Global Positioning System devices. It also offers bags, clips, hand straps, protective plates, and other accessories made of leather, nylon, vinyl, plastic, PVC, and other synthetic materials. It operates in two segments: distribution and design. The company sells its products globally and generates its revenue from the sale of protective solutions for diabetic products. It generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
Maiman Mitchell officer: President of Subsidiary 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Terence Bernard Wise director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HWY, #100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Severino Paul Jean officer: COO of Subsidiary 700 VETERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Camarda Anthony officer: Chief Financial Officer 700 VETERANS HWY SUITE 100 HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Shah Sangita director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 477 ROSEMARY AVE., STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Morgan Howard J director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 3110 MAIN STREET, SUITE 400 SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Ziglar James W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ZIGLAR JAMES W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Matthews Douglas David officer: Sr VP/Chief Operating Officer 477 S. ROSEMARY AVE. SUITE 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Yu Jenny P. 10 percent owner 9255 DOHENY ROAD APT. 2905 WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Frost James M director 477 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Fine N Scott director 600 3RD AVE NEW YORK NY 10016
Hrynkow Sharon director C/O FORWARD INDUSTRIES, INC. 477 ROSEMARY AVE., STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Luetkemeyer Michael L. director 411 LANDMARK DRIVE WILMINGTON NC 28412
Matte Michael D officer: Chief Financial Officer PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: MATTE MICHAEL D a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Freitag Eric director 477 ROSEMARY AVE. STE. 219 WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
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