NBTB (NBT Bancorp) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


NBTB NBT Bancorp Inc NBTB
69 GF Score
Price $49.28
GF Value $46.34
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is NBT Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

NBT Bancorp NBTB +1.07% 69 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates NBTB with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of $46.34 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

NBT Bancorp  (NAS:NBTB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

NBT Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

NBTB vs FBNC, BBT, BUSE: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

NBT Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


NBTB
69GF Score
NBT Bancorp Inc NBTB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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NBT Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.52

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
NBT Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, NBT Bancorp has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to FBNC and BBT?
NBT Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. NBT Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is NBT Bancorp stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, NBT Bancorp (NBTB) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $46.34, compared to a current price of $49.28 — trading 6.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. NBT Bancorp's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For NBT Bancorp (NBTB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is NBT Bancorp (NBTB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, NBT Bancorp stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $49.28 is trading 6.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $46.34. GuruFocus considers NBT Bancorp to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for NBTB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
  • GF Value™: $46.34 vs. price of $49.28 (6.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NBTB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

NBT Bancorp Business Description

Address 52 South Broad Street, Norwich, NY, USA, 13815
NBT Bancorp Inc is a financial holding company that operates through its subsidiaries. The company's principal sources of revenue include management fees and dividends it receives through its subsidiaries. Its business, predominantly conducted through NBT Bank, consists of providing commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services to customers in its market area, which includes upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central and northwestern Connecticut. The company's reportable segments are Banking and Retirement Plan Administration. A majority of its revenue is generated from the Banking segment.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NBTB

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$49.28
Price
$46.34
GF Value