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Royal Caribbean Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.79% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Royal Caribbean Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.79%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Royal Caribbean Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Royal Caribbean Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Royal Caribbean Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Royal Caribbean Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Royal Caribbean Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.84

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.79%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Royal Caribbean Group  (NYSE:RCL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Royal Caribbean Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Royal Caribbean Group Business Description

Royal Caribbean Group logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure NAICS : 483111 SIC : 4489
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1050 Caribbean Way, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Royal Caribbean is the world's second- largest cruise company, operating more than 60 ships across five global and partner brands in the cruise vacation industry. Brands the company operates include Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea. The company also has a 50% investment in a joint venture that operates TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises, allowing it to compete on the basis of innovation, quality of ships and service, variety of itineraries, choice of destinations, and price. The company is completed the divestiture of its Azamara brand in the first quarter of 2021.
Executives
Kulovaara Harri U officer: EVP, Maritime ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISE LINES 6100 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 200 MIAMI FL 33126
Pujol Henry L officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Bayley Michael W officer: Pres& CEO,Royal Caribbean Intl ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Stein Bradley H officer: SVP, GC & ChiefComplianceOff 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Lutoff-perlo Lisa officer: Pres & CEO, Celebrity Cruises 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Liberty Jason T officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
A Wilhelmsen A S 10 percent owner BEDDINGEN 8 AKER BRYGGE 1250 OSLO PO BOX 1583 VIKA N 0118 OSLO NORWAY Q8 00000
Wilhelmsen Arne Alexander director ANDERS WILHELMSEN & CO. AS BEDDINGEN 8, AKER BRYGGE OSLO Q8 NO-0118
Montiel Maritza Gomez director 475 W. TERRA COTTA AVE., SUITE E CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Howe Stephen R. Jr. director C/O ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Sorensen Vagn O director ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. 1050 CARIBBEAN WAY MIAMI FL 33132
Pritzker Thomas director PRITZKER & PRITZKER 200 W. MADISON STREET, 38TH FLOOR CHICAGO IL 60606
Ofer Eyal director CARLYLE M.G. LIMITED 18 UPPER BROOK STREET LONDON X0 W1Y 1PD
Moore Ann S director C/O AVON PRODUCS INC 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Brock John director 2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY ATLANTA GA 30339

Royal Caribbean Group Headlines

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