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PVBC (Provident Bancorp) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Dec. 12, 2024)


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What is Provident Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Provident Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Provident Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.37

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Provident Bancorp  (NAS:PVBC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Provident Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Provident Bancorp Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5 Market Street, Amesbury, MA, USA, 01913
Provident Bancorp Inc provides a range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized commercial customers. It attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate loans, commercial real estate, construction and land, and commercial business loans, and to invest in securities. The company lending activities include providing commercial real estate loans, multi-family residential real estate loans, commercial business loans, construction and land development loans, one-to four-family residential loans, home equity loans & lines of credit, and consumer loans.
Executives
Joseph Stilwell 10 percent owner 111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Investments, L.p. 10 percent owner 111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner 111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Llc 10 percent owner 111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Partners L P 10 percent owner 111 BROADWAY, 12TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10006
Kathleen Chase Curran director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Carol L Houle officer: Co-President, Co-CEO and CFO 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Barbara Piette director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Laurie H Knapp director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Joseph Mancini officer: Chief Operating Officer 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Mohammad Shaikh director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Cousins Frank G Jr director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
James A Deleo director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Jay E Gould director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913
Lisa Destefano director 5 MARKET STREET, AMESBURY MA 01913