Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
YTO Express Group Co (SHSE:600233) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
YTO Express Group Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
SHSE:600233 vs FDX, UPS, JBHT: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
YTO Express Group Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
YTO Express Group Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.29
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
YTO Express Group Co (SHSE:600233) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 27, 2026.
Is YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
YTO Express Group Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, YTO Express Group Co has a GF Score™ of 97/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to FDX and UPS?
YTO Express Group Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Transportation industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Transportation company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. YTO Express Group Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is YTO Express Group Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, YTO Express Group Co (SHSE:600233) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ¥19.00, compared to a current price of ¥15.29 — trading 19.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. YTO Express Group Co's overall GF Score™ is 97/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For YTO Express Group Co (SHSE:600233), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is YTO Express Group Co (SHSE:600233) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, YTO Express Group Co stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of ¥15.29 is trading 19.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of ¥19.00.
GuruFocus considers YTO Express Group Co to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for SHSE:600233:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: ¥19.00 vs. price of ¥15.29 (19.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SHSE:600233 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
YTO Express is one of the Tongda operators—the top four national express delivery companies that use the network partner model. In this model, Tongdas provide line-haul transportation, sorting, and waybill services to their network partners for fees, while their local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the Tongdas' brands and collect customer payments.The company was founded by Yu Huijiao in 2000. Yu remains chair and president with a 33.4% stake as of Feb. 25, 2026. Yu and Zhang Xiaojuan, who owned 2.15% of YTO as of that date, are persons acting in concert. YTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group and its affiliated companies, with around a 16.8% interest as of Feb. 25, 2026.
97GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SHSE:600233
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
SHSE:600233 has been successfully added to your 