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Shenyang Chemical Industry Co (SZSE:000698) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Mar. 15, 2025)


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What is Shenyang Chemical Industry Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Chemicals subindustry, Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shenyang Chemical Industry Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Shenyang Chemical Industry Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.34

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Shenyang Chemical Industry Co  (SZSE:000698) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Shenyang Chemical Industry Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Shenyang Chemical Industry Co Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 46 Weigong North Street, Tiexi District, Liaoning Province, Shenyang, CHN, 110026
Shenyang Chemical Industry Co Ltd is a China-based company engaged in the business of chlor-alkali chemical, petrochemical, and chemical new materials. Its product portfolio comprises PVC paste resin, toluene, benzene, sodium hypochlorite, industrial liquid chlorine, caustic soda, catalytic thermal cracking ethylene, acrylic acid and ester, Ether polyols and other products.
Executives
Li Chun Ming Executives
Zhang Zhen Yang Executives
Yang Zhi Guo Directors, Directors, and Executives
Dan Bao Fan Executives
Yang Ye Supervisors
Wang Yi Supervisors
Han Bai Executives
Liang Hui Shan Executives
Cao Xiu Ying Directors, executives

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