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TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, TE Connectivity's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Electronic Components subindustry, TE Connectivity's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

TE Connectivity Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, TE Connectivity's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where TE Connectivity's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



TE Connectivity Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.44

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


TE Connectivity  (NYSE:TEL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


TE Connectivity Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TE Connectivity's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Business Description

TE Connectivity logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » TE Connectivity Ltd (NYSE:TEL) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Muhlenstrasse 26, Schaffhausen, CHE, CH-8200
TE Connectivity is the largest electrical connector supplier in the world, supplying interconnect and sensor solutions to the transportation, industrial, and communications markets. With operations in 150 countries and over 500,000 stock-keeping units, TE Connectivity has a broad portfolio that forms the electrical architecture of its end customers' cutting-edge innovations.
Executives
Syaru Shirley Lin director
Aaron Kyle Stucki officer: Pres. Communications Solutions 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Lynn A Dugle director 4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Dawn C Willoughby director 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Kevin N Rock officer: President, Industrial Solution 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
David M Kerko director C/O KKR, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shadrak W Kroeger officer: Pres., Communications Solution 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Abhijit Y Talwalkar director ONE AMD PLACE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088
Heath A Mitts officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Tim Murphy officer: SVP & CHRO 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Mark Trudeau director COVIDIEN PLC, 15 HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Carol Anthony Davidson director
Laura Wright director 2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, P.O. BOX 36611, DALLAS TX 75235-1611
John S Jenkins officer: EVP & General Counsel 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Bradley Alan Gambill officer: SVP, Strategy & Business Dev. 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312

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