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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oncolys BioPharma (TSE:4588) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Oncolys BioPharma Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
TSE:4588 vs VRTX, REGN, ALNY: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Biotechnology subindustry, Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Oncolys BioPharma Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Biotechnology Industry
For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Oncolys BioPharma Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.49
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Oncolys BioPharma (TSE:4588) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jul. 14, 2026.
Is Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Oncolys BioPharma's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Oncolys BioPharma has a GF Score™ of 40/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to VRTX and REGN?
Oncolys BioPharma's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Biotechnology industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Biotechnology company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Biotechnology industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Oncolys BioPharma's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Oncolys BioPharma stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oncolys BioPharma (TSE:4588) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円363.33, compared to a current price of 円2,522.00 — trading 594.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Oncolys BioPharma's overall GF Score™ is 40/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Oncolys BioPharma (TSE:4588), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Oncolys BioPharma (TSE:4588) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Oncolys BioPharma stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of 円2,522.00 is trading 594.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円363.33.
GuruFocus considers Oncolys BioPharma to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for TSE:4588:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
GF Value™: 円363.33 vs. price of 円2,522.00 (594.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:4588 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Oncolys BioPharma Inc develops pharmaceutical products. The company is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies for cancer treatment. Their product pipeline includes various drug candidates such as Telomelysin (OBP-301) and OBP-702, aimed at addressing unmet medical needs in oncology. The company targets healthcare providers and institutions involved in cancer care and research.
40GF Score
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