Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Aya Gold & Silver Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
TSX:AYA vs EXK: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Silver subindustry, Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Aya Gold & Silver Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Aya Gold & Silver Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.06
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Aya Gold & Silver's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Aya Gold & Silver has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to EXK?
Aya Gold & Silver's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Metals & Mining industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Aya Gold & Silver's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aya Gold & Silver stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is C$65.70, compared to a current price of C$24.32 — trading 63% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Aya Gold & Silver's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aya Gold & Silver stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of C$24.32 is trading 63% below its estimated GF Value™ of C$65.70.
GuruFocus considers Aya Gold & Silver to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for TSX:AYA:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: C$65.70 vs. price of C$24.32 (63% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the TSX:AYA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc is a Canadian-based precious metals mining corporation active across the full mining life-cycle, from discovery and development through to production. It operates in Morocco. The company's flagship asset is the Zgounder Silver Mine, recognized for its rare, high-grade silver mineralization. The mine is located along the Anti-Atlas fault, one of North Africa's geologically rich and underexplored regions, known for hosting silver, gold, and base metal deposits. Aya also owns an 85% interest in the Boumadine polymetallic project, which is currently at the exploration and evaluation stage. It operates in single segment of mining industry and its products are precious metals ingots and concentrate which are refined or smelted into pure silver and sold to metal brokers.
80GF Score
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