Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) Beneish M-Score: -0.90 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


TSX:AYA Aya Gold & Silver Inc TSX:AYA
80 GF Score
Price C$24.32
GF Value C$65.83
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Aya Gold & Silver Beneish M-Score?

Aya Gold & Silver TSX:AYA -6.10% 80 Beneish M-Score is -0.90 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSX:AYA with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of C$65.83 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 685 Metals & Mining companies, Aya Gold & Silver ranks worse than 82.34% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -0.9 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSX:AYA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -11.26   Med: -1.19   Max: 8.07
Current: -0.9

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aya Gold & Silver was 8.07. The lowest was -11.26. And the median was -1.19.


Aya Gold & Silver Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Aya Gold & Silver Beneish M-Score Chart

Aya Gold & Silver Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.53 -2.11 -1.19 -1.37 0.28

Aya Gold & Silver Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.03 -1.01 -0.87 0.28 -0.90

TSX:AYA vs EXK: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Silver subindustry, Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aya Gold & Silver Beneish M-Score vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score falls into.


TSX:AYA
80GF Score
Aya Gold & Silver Inc TSX:AYA
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Aya Gold & Silver Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aya Gold & Silver for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.4168+0.528 * 0.4101+0.404 * 0.8904+0.892 * 4.1105+0.115 * 0.3342
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.3028+4.679 * -0.089674-0.327 * 0.7697
=-0.90

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was C$60.2 Mil.
Revenue was 160.9 + 103.903 + 75.17 + 52.779 = C$392.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 114.917 + 58.779 + 29.558 + 12.222 = C$215.5 Mil.
Total Current Assets was C$352.5 Mil.
Total Assets was C$903.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was C$507.6 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was C$32.8 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was C$35.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was C$158.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was C$97.6 Mil.
Net Income was 66.307 + 24.001 + 17.16 + 12.061 = C$119.5 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.386 + -2.384 + 3.868 + 14.842 = C$15.9 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 96.28 + 46.695 + 30.974 + 10.643 = C$184.6 Mil.
Total Receivables was C$35.2 Mil.
Revenue was 48.568 + 13.302 + 14.933 + 18.746 = C$95.5 Mil.
Gross Profit was 14.711 + -2.488 + 2.544 + 6.733 = C$21.5 Mil.
Total Current Assets was C$105.2 Mil.
Total Assets was C$601.4 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was C$464.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was C$9.6 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was C$28.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was C$102.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was C$118.9 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(60.247 / 392.752) / (35.165 / 95.549)
=0.153397 / 0.368031
=0.4168

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(21.5 / 95.549) / (215.476 / 392.752)
=0.225015 / 0.548631
=0.4101

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (352.531 + 507.589) / 903.307) / (1 - (105.184 + 463.97) / 601.449)
=0.04781 / 0.053695
=0.8904

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=392.752 / 95.549
=4.1105

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(9.608 / (9.608 + 463.97)) / (32.801 / (32.801 + 507.589))
=0.020288 / 0.060699
=0.3342

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(35.016 / 392.752) / (28.129 / 95.549)
=0.089155 / 0.294393
=0.3028

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((97.601 + 158.559) / 903.307) / ((118.925 + 102.668) / 601.449)
=0.28358 / 0.368432
=0.7697

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(119.529 - 15.94 - 184.592) / 903.307
=-0.089674

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aya Gold & Silver has a M-score of -0.90 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -0.90 mean?
Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) has a Beneish M-Score of -0.90 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aya Gold & Silver and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Aya Gold & Silver ranks #564 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 82.3%.
Is Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score too high?
Aya Gold & Silver's current Beneish M-Score is -0.90. Based on the distribution chart, Aya Gold & Silver ranks #564 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Aya Gold & Silver has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aya Gold & Silver's Beneish M-Score compare to EXK?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Aya Gold & Silver ranks #564 out of 685 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Aya Gold & Silver in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aya Gold & Silver and its competitors. Aya Gold & Silver's current Beneish M-Score is -0.90. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aya Gold & Silver stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is C$65.83, compared to a current price of C$24.32 — trading 63.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -0.90. Aya Gold & Silver's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA), the current Beneish M-Score is -0.90 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aya Gold & Silver stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of C$24.32 is trading 63.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of C$65.83. GuruFocus considers Aya Gold & Silver to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for TSX:AYA:

  • Beneish M-Score: -0.90
  • GF Value™: C$65.83 vs. price of C$24.32 (63.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 80/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSX:AYA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Aya Gold & Silver Business Description

Other Exchanges AYA:USA0HE:Germany
Address 1320 Graham Boulevard, Suite 132, Mont-Royal, QC, CAN, H3P 3C8
Aya Gold & Silver Inc is a Canadian-based precious metals mining corporation active across the full mining life-cycle, from discovery and development through to production. It operates in Morocco. The company's flagship asset is the Zgounder Silver Mine, recognized for its rare, high-grade silver mineralization. The mine is located along the Anti-Atlas fault, one of North Africa's geologically rich and underexplored regions, known for hosting silver, gold, and base metal deposits. Aya also owns an 85% interest in the Boumadine polymetallic project, which is currently at the exploration and evaluation stage. It operates in single segment of mining industry and its products are precious metals ingots and concentrate which are refined or smelted into pure silver and sold to metal brokers.
80GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSX:AYA

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

C$24.32
Price
C$65.83
GF Value