Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Volvo AB (OTCPK:VOLAF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Volvo AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
VOLAF vs CAT, DE, PCAR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Volvo AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Industry
For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Volvo AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.98
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Volvo AB (VOLAF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Volvo AB's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Volvo AB has a GF Score™ of 92/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CAT and DE?
Volvo AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Volvo AB's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Volvo AB stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Volvo AB (VOLAF) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $28.60, compared to a current price of $34.15 — trading 19.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Volvo AB's overall GF Score™ is 92/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Volvo AB (VOLAF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Volvo AB (VOLAF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Volvo AB stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $34.15 is trading 19.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $28.60.
GuruFocus considers Volvo AB to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for VOLAF:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: $28.60 vs. price of $34.15 (19.4% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the VOLAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The Volvo Group is one of the largest global truck, bus, construction equipment, and engine and power system original equipment manufacturers, operating with the Volvo, Renault Truck, Mack Trucks, Volvo Penta, and Nova Bus brands. Among the four largest Western global brands—Volvo, Daimler, Paccar, and Traton—Volvo ranks third in terms of annual deliveries. Its truck, construction equipment, bus, and engines and power system segments contributed 71%, 18%, 5%, and 5%, respectively, to industrial operations' revenue in 2025. An in-house financial services division supports these businesses. In its key regions of Europe, North America, Brazil, and Australia, the truck business holds large market shares of 29%, 17%, 24%, and 22%, respectively.
92GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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