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Alcoa (ASX:AAI) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : A$1.18 (As of Mar. 2025)


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What is Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was A$-0.110. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is A$1.18 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2025.

Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

As of today (2025-05-22), Alcoa's current stock price is A$43.95. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2025 was A$1.18. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 37.25.

During the past 12 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 56.62. The lowest was 31.09. And the median was 40.47.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Alcoa Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - 1.40

Alcoa Quarterly Data
Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 1.23 1.40 1.18

Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


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Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Alcoa's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2025 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2025)
=-0.11/134.9266*134.9266
=-0.110

Current CPI (Mar. 2025) = 134.9266.

Alcoa Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201506 1.144 100.684 1.533
201509 1.631 100.392 2.192
201512 -0.605 99.792 -0.818
201603 -3.252 100.470 -4.367
201606 -1.244 101.688 -1.651
201609 -1.407 101.861 -1.864
201612 0.692 101.863 0.917
201703 0.021 102.862 0.028
201706 1.585 103.349 2.069
201709 1.931 104.136 2.502
201712 2.133 104.011 2.767
201803 -0.130 105.290 -0.167
201806 -3.706 106.317 -4.703
201809 1.537 106.507 1.947
201812 2.856 105.998 3.635
201903 0.756 107.251 0.951
201906 -0.054 108.070 -0.067
201909 0.686 108.329 0.854
201912 1.005 108.420 1.251
202003 -1.556 108.902 -1.928
202006 1.644 108.767 2.039
202009 0.625 109.815 0.768
202012 -0.521 109.897 -0.640
202103 -0.474 111.754 -0.572
202106 -1.136 114.631 -1.337
202109 2.521 115.734 2.939
202112 3.031 117.630 3.477
202203 -0.289 121.301 -0.321
202206 3.282 125.017 3.542
202209 0.050 125.227 0.054
202212 -0.441 125.222 -0.475
202303 -2.070 127.348 -2.193
202306 -1.071 128.729 -1.123
202309 -0.664 129.860 -0.690
202312 0.084 129.419 0.088
202403 -2.760 131.776 -2.826
202406 1.023 132.554 1.041
202409 -0.019 133.029 -0.019
202412 1.466 133.157 1.485
202503 -0.110 134.927 -0.110

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Alcoa  (ASX:AAI) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=43.95/1.18
=37.25

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 12 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 56.62. The lowest was 31.09. And the median was 40.47.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Alcoa Business Description

Industry
Address
201 Isabella Street, Suite 500, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212-5858
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024, meaning refining assets are now predominantly wholly owned, as with smelting.

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