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Chipotle Mexican Grill (Chipotle Mexican Grill) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $52.66 (As of Dec23)
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As of Dec23, Chipotle Mexican Grill's earnings power value is $52.66. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -5437.54

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -21.80 -67.00 -35.27 -18.08 52.66

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -18.08 5.29 28.43 44.49 52.66

Competitive Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 7,525
DDA 262
Operating Margin % 11.13
SGA * 25% 136
Tax Rate % 30.58
Maintenance Capex 337
Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,295
Short-Term Debt 248
Long-Term Debt 3,804
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 28

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 11.13%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $7,525 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 11.13%, Average Adjusted SGA = 136,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 7,525 * 11.13% +136 = $973.79246236 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 30.58%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $973.79246236 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 973.79246236 * ( 1 - 30.58% ) = $675.96777567182 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 262 * 0.5 * 30.58% = $40.131988376 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 675.96777567182 + 40.131988376 = $716.09976404782 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $337 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Chipotle Mexican Grill's current cash and cash equivalent = $1,295 Mil.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 3,804 + 248 = $4051.625 Mil.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 28 Mil.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 716.09976404782 - 337)/ 9%+1,295-4051.625 )/28
=52.66

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 52.664544460863-2916.32 )/52.664544460863
= -5437.54%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE:CMG) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (Chipotle Mexican Grill) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1100, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $8.6 billion in 2022. The Mexican concept is predominately company-owned (it recently inked a development agreement with Alshaya Group in the Middle East), with a footprint of nearly 3,200 stores at the end of 2022, heavily indexed to the United States, although the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.
Executives
Brian R Niccol director, officer: Chairman, CEO 1 GLEN BELL WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Gregg L Engles director 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Scott Boatwright officer: Chief Restaurant Officer 1401 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Robin S Hickenlooper director 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Laurie Schalow officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Curtis E Garner officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC., 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Christopher W Brandt officer: Chief Marketing Officer 2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607
Patricia Filikrushel director DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION, 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Laura Fuentes director 7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Albert S Baldocchi director 1601 HIGH STREET, BOULDER CO 80304
Marissa Andrada officer: Chief D&I and People Officer C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Roger E Theodoredis officer: Chief Legal Officer & GC 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.p. director 787 11TH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jack Hartung officer: CFO & Chief Development Ofcr 1543 WAZEE STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202
Scott Harlan Maw director 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202