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Elevance Health (Elevance Health) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $536.68 (As of May. 23, 2024)


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What is Elevance Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-23), Elevance Health's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $536.68.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Elevance Health's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Elevance Health is -1.35%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Elevance Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ELV' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.37   Med: 0.66   Max: 1.3
Current: 1.01

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Elevance Health was 1.30. The lowest was 0.37. And the median was 0.66.

ELV's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
75% of 4 companies
in the Healthcare Plans industry
Industry Median: 0.93 vs ELV: 1.01

Elevance Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Elevance Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Elevance Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Elevance Health Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 371.89 339.02 693.37 551.55 561.41

Elevance Health Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 572.42 621.61 544.96 561.41 536.68

Competitive Comparison of Elevance Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Healthcare Plans subindustry, Elevance Health's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Elevance Health's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Healthcare Plans Industry

For the Healthcare Plans industry and Healthcare sector, Elevance Health's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Elevance Health's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Elevance Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.40%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Elevance Health's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 13.40%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 13.40%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $26.73.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Elevance Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.134)/(1+0.11) = 1.0216216216216
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=26.73*20.0779
=536.68

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (536.68 - 543.94) / 536.68
= -1.35 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Elevance Health  (NYSE:ELV) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Elevance Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Elevance Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Elevance Health (Elevance Health) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
220 Virginia Avenue, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46204
Elevance Health remains one of the leading health insurers in the U.S., providing medical benefits to 48 million medical members as of June 2023. The company offers employer, individual, and government-sponsored coverage plans. Elevance differs from its peers in its unique position as the largest single provider of Blue Cross Blue Shield branded coverage, operating as the licensee for the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association in 14 states. Through acquisitions, such as the Amerigroup deal in 2012 and MMM in 2021, Elevance's reach expands beyond those states through government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid and Medicare Advantage plans, too.
Executives
Blair Williams Todt officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer 8735 HENDERSON ROAD, TAMPA FL 33625
Ronald W Penczek officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Mark Kaye officer: EVP & CFO Designate 7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Dixon Robert L Jr director 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Gloria M Mccarthy officer: EVP, Office of the CEO WELLPOINT, INC, 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Kendrick Charles Morgan Jr officer: EVP & President, Commercial 220 VIRGINIA AVE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Deanna D Strable-soethout director C/O PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP, 711 HIGH ST., DES MOINES IA 50392
Ramiro G Peru director WELLPOINT, INC, 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46260
Peter D Haytaian officer: EVP & Pres., Govt. Bus. Div. 220 VIRGINIA AVE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Susan D. Devore director C/O PREMIER, INC., 13034 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Ryan M. Schneider director 1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
John E Gallina officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Julie A Hill director WELLPOINT, INC, 120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Thomas C Zielinski officer: EVP & General Counsel
Jeffrey D. Alter officer: EVP, IngenioRx & Anthem Health 4330 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92122

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