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HCC Insurance Holdings (FRA:HCZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €73.77 (As of May. 14, 2024)


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What is HCC Insurance Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-14), HCC Insurance Holdings's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €73.77.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

HCC Insurance Holdings's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for HCC Insurance Holdings is 4.58%.

The historical rank and industry rank for HCC Insurance Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:HCZ's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Insurance industry.
Industry Median: 0.915
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

HCC Insurance Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for HCC Insurance Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

HCC Insurance Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

HCC Insurance Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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HCC Insurance Holdings Quarterly Data
Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15
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Competitive Comparison of HCC Insurance Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, HCC Insurance Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


HCC Insurance Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, HCC Insurance Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where HCC Insurance Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



HCC Insurance Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.45%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> HCC Insurance Holdings's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.10%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 14.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €3.5064.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

HCC Insurance Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.141)/(1+0.11) = 1.0279279279279
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.5064*21.0394
=73.77

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (73.77 - 70.39) / 73.77
= 4.58 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


HCC Insurance Holdings  (FRA:HCZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


HCC Insurance Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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HCC Insurance Holdings (FRA:HCZ) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
HCC Insurance Holdings Inc was incorporated in the state of Delaware in 1991. The Company provides specialized property and casualty, surety, and group life, accident and health insurance coverages and related agency and reinsurance brokerage services to commercial customers and individuals. It concentrates its activities in selected, narrowly defined, specialty lines of business. The Company has five underwriting segments: U.S. Property & Casualty, Professional Liability, Accident & Health, U.S. Surety & Credit and International. U.S. Property & Casualty segment includes specialty lines of insurance such as aviation, small account errors and omissions liability (E&O), public risk, contingency, disability, title and mortgage reinsurance, residual value, employment practices liability (EPLI), technical property, primary and excess casualty, and brown water marine written in the U.S. The majority of the business is primary coverage, and claims are reported and settled on a short to medium-term basis. Professional Liability segment primarily consists of its directors' and officers' (D&O) liability business. In addition, it write related professional liability and crime business coverages, including large account E&O liability, fiduciary liability, fidelity and bankers blanket bonds, and EPLI for some D&O policyholders. Accident & Health segment includes medical stop-loss, short-term domestic and international medical products, written in the United States. The majority of the business covers groups of employees, and claims are reported and settled quickly. U.S. Surety & Credit segment conducts business through separate specialty surety underwriting operations and credit underwriting operations. International segment includes energy, property treaty, liability, surety, credit, property (direct and facultative), ocean marine, accident and health and other smaller product lines written from operations in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland. The Company operates mainly in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland. Some of its operations have a broader international scope. The Company markets its products both directly to customers and through a network of independent and affiliated brokers, producers, agents and third party administrators. Its insurance companies are risk-bearing and focus their underwriting activities on providing insurance and/or reinsurance in the following lines of business: Diversified financial products; Group life, accident and health; Aviation; London market account and other specialty lines. The Company's underwriting agencies underwrite on behalf of its insurance companies and in certain situations for other unaffiliated insurance companies. The agencies specialize in the following types of business: contingency; directors' and officers' liability; individual disability; kidnap and ransom; employment practices liability; errors and omissions liability; public entity; various financial products

HCC Insurance Holdings (FRA:HCZ) Headlines

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