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HCC Insurance Holdings (FRA:HCZ) Predictability Rank


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What is HCC Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


HCC Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

HCC Insurance Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of HCC Insurance Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


HCC Insurance Holdings (FRA:HCZ) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
HCC Insurance Holdings Inc was incorporated in the state of Delaware in 1991. The Company provides specialized property and casualty, surety, and group life, accident and health insurance coverages and related agency and reinsurance brokerage services to commercial customers and individuals. It concentrates its activities in selected, narrowly defined, specialty lines of business. The Company has five underwriting segments: U.S. Property & Casualty, Professional Liability, Accident & Health, U.S. Surety & Credit and International. U.S. Property & Casualty segment includes specialty lines of insurance such as aviation, small account errors and omissions liability (E&O), public risk, contingency, disability, title and mortgage reinsurance, residual value, employment practices liability (EPLI), technical property, primary and excess casualty, and brown water marine written in the U.S. The majority of the business is primary coverage, and claims are reported and settled on a short to medium-term basis. Professional Liability segment primarily consists of its directors' and officers' (D&O) liability business. In addition, it write related professional liability and crime business coverages, including large account E&O liability, fiduciary liability, fidelity and bankers blanket bonds, and EPLI for some D&O policyholders. Accident & Health segment includes medical stop-loss, short-term domestic and international medical products, written in the United States. The majority of the business covers groups of employees, and claims are reported and settled quickly. U.S. Surety & Credit segment conducts business through separate specialty surety underwriting operations and credit underwriting operations. International segment includes energy, property treaty, liability, surety, credit, property (direct and facultative), ocean marine, accident and health and other smaller product lines written from operations in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland. The Company operates mainly in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland. Some of its operations have a broader international scope. The Company markets its products both directly to customers and through a network of independent and affiliated brokers, producers, agents and third party administrators. Its insurance companies are risk-bearing and focus their underwriting activities on providing insurance and/or reinsurance in the following lines of business: Diversified financial products; Group life, accident and health; Aviation; London market account and other specialty lines. The Company's underwriting agencies underwrite on behalf of its insurance companies and in certain situations for other unaffiliated insurance companies. The agencies specialize in the following types of business: contingency; directors' and officers' liability; individual disability; kidnap and ransom; employment practices liability; errors and omissions liability; public entity; various financial products

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