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Post HoldingsPOST +1.13%71 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $102.19 as of Aug. 07, 2026. GuruFocus rates POST with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of $134.47 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 221 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, Post Holdings ranks worse than 452488.24% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Post Holdings's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The industry rank for Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
POST's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 1.07 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
POST vs MZTI, FRPT, CENT: Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Comparison
For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Post Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Post Holdings Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Post Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Post Holdings's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
Post Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Post Holdings's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 2.60%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $8.855. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Post Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $102.19 mean?
Post Holdings (POST) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $102.19 as of Aug. 07, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Post Holdings and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Post Holdings ranks #999999 out of 221 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Is Post Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
Post Holdings' current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $102.19. The Consumer Packaged Goods industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.07. Post Holdings' value of $102.19 is 9450.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Post Holdings ranks #999999 out of 221 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Post Holdings has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Post Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to MZTI and FRPT?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, Post Holdings ranks #999999 out of 221 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This places Post Holdings in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.07. Post Holdings' value of $102.19 is 9450.5% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Consumer Packaged Goods companies is 1.07, based on 221 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Post Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $102.19 is 9450.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Post Holdings and its competitors. For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.07 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Post Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $102.19. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Post Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Post Holdings (POST) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $134.47, compared to a current price of $90.23 — trading 32.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $102.19 and 9450.5% above the Consumer Packaged Goods industry median of 1.07. Post Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Post Holdings (POST), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $102.19 as of Aug. 07, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Post Holdings (POST) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Post Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $90.23 is trading 32.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $134.47.
GuruFocus considers Post Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for POST:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based): $102.19
GF Value™: $134.47 vs. price of $90.23 (32.9% below fair value)
Industry Position: 9450.5% above the Consumer Packaged Goods median (#999999 of 221)
No single metric tells the full story. See the POST stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Post Holdings Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company with products sold through grocery, club, and drug stores, mass merchandisers, foodservice, food ingredient, and eCommerce. It operates through four reportable segments: Post Consumer Brands, focused on North American ready-to-eat cereal and granola, pet food, and nut butters; Weetabix, focused on U.K. ready-to-eat cereal, muesli, and protein-based shakes; Foodservice, focused on egg and potato products; and Refrigerated Retail, focused on side dish, egg, cheese, and sausage products. Products are sold across channels, including retailers, wholesalers, convenience stores, pet supply retailers, drug store customers, military and national restaurant chains, with revenues largely generated in the U.S.
71GF Score
Get the complete analysis for POST
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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