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Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : £11.87 (As of Sep. 22, 2024)


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What is Dragon Oil Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-09-22), Dragon Oil's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is £11.87. The stock price of Dragon Oil is £7.99. Therefore, Dragon Oil's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for Dragon Oil's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

LSE:DGO' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.47   Med: 0.59   Max: 0.98
Current: 0.67

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Dragon Oil was 0.98. The lowest was 0.47. And the median was 0.59.

LSE:DGO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is not ranked
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.77 vs LSE:DGO: 0.67

Dragon Oil Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Dragon Oil's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Dragon Oil Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Dragon Oil Annual Data
Trend Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.19 7.30 9.49 10.88 11.25

Dragon Oil Semi-Annual Data
Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Jun15
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 10.88 - 11.25 -

Competitive Comparison of Dragon Oil's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Dragon Oil's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Dragon Oil's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Dragon Oil's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Dragon Oil's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Dragon Oil Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Dragon Oil's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = £225.32.

Dragon Oil's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec14)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.689378362526*225.31685714286+2369.542*0.8)/491.850
=10.13

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Dragon Oil  (LSE:DGO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Dragon Oil's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=7.99/10.125203433738
=0.79

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Dragon Oil Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Dragon Oil Business Description

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Dragon Oil PLC is an independent oil and gas exploration, development and production company. The Company's producing asset is the Cheleken Contract Area, in the eastern section of the Caspian Sea, offshore Turkmenistan. It has exploration blocks offshore Tunisia (the Bargou Exploration Permit), in Iraq (Block 9), Afghanistan (Sanduqli and Mazar-i-Sharif blocks), offshore the Philippines (Service Contract 63) in partnership with other companies and Block 19 in Egypt. The Company develops the hydrocarbon reserves in the Cheleken Contract Area in accordance with the terms of the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). As at 31 December 2014 the Company had probably oil reserves of 663 million barrels of oil and condensate, gas 2P reserves and contingent gas resources of c. 2.7 TCF. The Bargou Exploration Permit contains prospective resources, while Block 9, Sanduqli and Mazar-i-Sharif blocks and Block 19 are at an early stage of exploration. The Company is subject to the international laws and regulations that it operates in.

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