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MSC Industrial Direct CoMSM -0.96%81 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $71.86 as of Sep. 01, 2026. GuruFocus rates MSM with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of $93.16 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 131 Industrial Distribution companies, MSC Industrial Direct Co ranks worse than 78.63% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for MSC Industrial Direct Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
MSM'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.98 Med: 1.31 Max: 1.75
Current: 1.64
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of MSC Industrial Direct Co was 1.75. The lowest was 0.98. And the median was 1.31.
MSM's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 78.63% of 131
companies
in the Industrial Distribution industry
Industry Median: 0.84
vs MSM: 1.64
MSC Industrial Direct Co (NYSE:MSM) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
MSC Industrial Direct Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
117.74
/
71.859489810812
=
1.64
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MSC Industrial Direct Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
MSC Industrial Direct Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
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The historical data trend for MSC Industrial Direct Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MSC Industrial Direct Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
MSM vs POOL, XMTR, CNM: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Industrial Distribution subindustry, MSC Industrial Direct Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
MSC Industrial Direct Co Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Industrial Distribution Industry
For the Industrial Distribution industry and Industrials sector, MSC Industrial Direct Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where MSC Industrial Direct Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
MSC Industrial Direct Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $71.86 mean?
MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $71.86 as of Sep. 01, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on MSC Industrial Direct Co and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, MSC Industrial Direct Co ranks #103 out of 131 companies in the Industrial Distribution industry, placing it in the top 78.6%.
Is MSC Industrial Direct Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
MSC Industrial Direct Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $71.86. The Industrial Distribution industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.84. MSC Industrial Direct Co's value of $71.86 is 8454.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, MSC Industrial Direct Co ranks #103 out of 131 companies in the Industrial Distribution industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, MSC Industrial Direct Co has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does MSC Industrial Direct Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to POOL and XMTR?
According to the Industrial Distribution industry distribution chart, MSC Industrial Direct Co ranks #103 out of 131 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places MSC Industrial Direct Co in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.84. MSC Industrial Direct Co's value of $71.86 is 8454.8% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for an Industrial Distribution company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Industrial Distribution companies is 0.84, based on 131 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. MSC Industrial Direct Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $71.86 is 8454.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on MSC Industrial Direct Co and its competitors. For the Industrial Distribution industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.84 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. MSC Industrial Direct Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $71.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is MSC Industrial Direct Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $93.16, compared to a current price of $117.74 — trading 26.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $71.86 and 8454.8% above the Industrial Distribution industry median of 0.84. MSC Industrial Direct Co's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $71.86 as of Sep. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, MSC Industrial Direct Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $117.74 is trading 26.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $93.16.
GuruFocus considers MSC Industrial Direct Co to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MSM:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $71.86
GF Value™: $93.16 vs. price of $117.74 (26.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 8454.8% above the Industrial Distribution median (#103 of 131)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MSM stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Founded in 1941, MSC Industrial Direct originally manufactured and sold cutting tools to metalworking shops in New York. Through a series of acquisitions and organic expansions, MSC has grown into an industrial distribution powerhouse with a focus on specialized metalworking products and services. The firm also distributes a wide breadth of maintenance, repair, and operations supplies. MSC primarily operates in North America, where it derives over 95% of its revenue.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MSM
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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