MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Co) Predictability Rank

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What is MSC Industrial Direct Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MSC Industrial Direct Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MSC Industrial Direct Co Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (NYSE:MSM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

98M:Germany

Address

515 Broadhollow Road, Suite 1000, Melville, NY, USA, 11747

Website

https://www.mscdirect.com

MSC Industrial Direct is one of the largest industrial distributors with a focus on metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations products and services. The company offers over 2 million products through its distribution network, which has 14 fulfillment or regional inventory centers. Although MSC has a presence in Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, it primarily operates in the United States. In fiscal 2024, 95% of the firm's $3.8 billion of sales was generated in the US.

Executives

Mitchell Jacobson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS RD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Philip Peller	director
Erik Gershwind	officer: SVP, Product Mgmnt & Marketing	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO INC, 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Kimberly Shacklett	officer: SVP, Sales & Customer Success	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 515 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Kristen Actis-grande	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Elizabeth Bledsoe	officer: SVP & Chief People Officer	C/O MSC LNDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Douglas E Jones	officer: EVP, Chief Supply Chain	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Stacey L. Bennett	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVE., SUITE 620, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rahquel Purcell	director	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 515 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Martina Mcisaac	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 515 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Steven N Baruch	officer: SVP, STRATEGY & MARKETING	18232 PENINSULA CLUB, CORNELIUS NC 28031
Louise K Goeser	director	C/O PPL CORPORATION, TWO NORTH NINTH STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
John Hill	officer: SVP, Chief Digital Info Offr.	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 515 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Neal Dongre	officer: VP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 515 BROADHOLLOW ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Martin Edward F Jr	officer: SVP, Sales & Customer Success	C/O MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC., 75 MAXESS ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747