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Neste OYJNTOIF +1.93%69 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42 as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus rates NTOIF with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of $21.25 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review. Among 632 Oil & Gas companies, Neste OYJ ranks worse than 79.75% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-06), Neste OYJ's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42. The stock price of Neste OYJ is $38.30. Therefore, Neste OYJ's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.9.
The historical rank and industry rank for Neste OYJ's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
NTOIF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.58 Med: 1.9 Max: 3.63
Current: 1.88
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Neste OYJ was 3.63. The lowest was 0.58. And the median was 1.90.
NTOIF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 79.75% of 632
companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 0.86
vs NTOIF: 1.88
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Neste OYJ's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
38.30
/
19.627072642501
=
1.95
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Neste OYJ Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Neste OYJ Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Neste OYJ's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
NTOIF vs MPC, VLO, PSX: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Neste OYJ's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Neste OYJ Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Neste OYJ's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Neste OYJ's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $20.42 mean?
Neste OYJ (NTOIF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $20.42 as of Sep. 06, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Neste OYJ and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Neste OYJ ranks #504 out of 632 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 79.7%.
Is Neste OYJ's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Neste OYJ's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42. The Oil & Gas industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86. Neste OYJ's value of $20.42 is 2274.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Neste OYJ ranks #504 out of 632 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Neste OYJ has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Neste OYJ's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to MPC and VLO?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Neste OYJ ranks #504 out of 632 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Neste OYJ in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86. Neste OYJ's value of $20.42 is 2274.4% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Oil & Gas companies is 0.86, based on 632 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Neste OYJ's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $20.42 is 2274.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Neste OYJ and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.86 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Neste OYJ's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Neste OYJ stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Neste OYJ (NTOIF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $21.25, compared to a current price of $38.30 — trading 80.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42 and 2274.4% above the Oil & Gas industry median of 0.86. Neste OYJ's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Neste OYJ (NTOIF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $20.42 as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Neste OYJ (NTOIF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Neste OYJ stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $38.30 is trading 80.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of $21.25.
GuruFocus considers Neste OYJ to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for NTOIF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $20.42
GF Value™: $21.25 vs. price of $38.30 (80.2% above fair value)
Industry Position: 2274.4% above the Oil & Gas median (#504 of 632)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NTOIF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Neste OYJ is a producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with production on three continents. The group also produces oil products and has a network of several fuel stations with expanding service offerings, such as EV charging, in Finland and in the Baltics. Neste has three reporting segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, and Marketing and Services. Maximum revenue is generated from its Oil Products segment, which offers oil products and related services for the road transportation, heavy machinery, agriculture, aviation, and marine sectors, as well as products for the oil and petrochemical industries. Geographically, the group generates maximum revenue from other European countries (excluding Finland), followed by Finland, the USA, and other markets.
69GF Score
Get the complete analysis for NTOIF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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