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Align Technology (NAS:ALGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $225.94 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-12-02), Align Technology's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $225.94.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Align Technology's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Align Technology is 2.47%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ALGN' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.49   Med: 1.45   Max: 2.02
Current: 0.98

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Align Technology was 2.02. The lowest was 0.49. And the median was 1.45.

ALGN's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
73.33% of 90 companies
in the Medical Devices & Instruments industry
Industry Median: 1.35 vs ALGN: 0.98

Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Align Technology Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 1,079.94 426.68 199.58

Align Technology Quarterly Data
Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 237.43 199.58 180.31 207.15 225.94

Competitive Comparison

For the Medical Devices subindustry, Align Technology's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Align Technology Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Medical Devices & Instruments industry and Healthcare sector, Align Technology's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Align Technology's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.21%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Align Technology's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 26.80%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.230.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.230*31.2501
=225.94

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(225.94-220.36)/225.94
=2.47 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Align Technology  (NAS:ALGN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Align Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Align Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Align Technology (NAS:ALGN) Business Description

Address
410 North Scottsdale Road, Suite 1300, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281
Align Technology is the leading manufacturer of clear aligners. Invisalign, its main product, was approved by the FDA in 1998, and it has since dominated, controlling over 90% of the market. Invisalign can treat roughly 90% of all malocclusion cases (misaligned teeth), and there are over 230,000 Invisalign-trained dentists and orthodontists. In 2022, Invisalign treated over 2 million cases, or roughly 10% of all orthodontic cases for the year, and it has treated over 14 million patients since its launch. Align also sells intraoral scanners under the brand iTero, which captures digital impressions of patients' teeth and illustrates treatment plans. Over 85% of Invisalign cases are submitted by digital scans and iTero scans make up over half of these scans.
Executives
Anne Myong director 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95141
Kevin J Dallas director C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2560 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Susan E Siegel director 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BLDG 3 STE 290, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Markus Christof Sebastian officer: SVP & Mng Dir EMEA 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Pudipeddi Vamsi Mohan Raj officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Julie Ann Coletti officer: SVP, Chief Legal & Regulatory 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Warren S Thaler director C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 410 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 1300, TEMPE AZ 85281
Joseph Lacob director 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Yuval Shaked officer: SVP and Mgng Director, Itero C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Lynn Pendergrass officer: VP, Americas 3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Stuart A Hockridge officer: VP, Global Human Resources C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131
John Morici officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Sreelakshmi Kolli officer: VP, Info Technology C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Jennifer Olson officer: VP& Mng Dir. D-DCC C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 2820 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 94131
Jennifer Erfurth officer: VP, Global HR C/O ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 2560 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131