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Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $93.64 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-04-02), Academy Sports and Outdoors's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $93.64.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Academy Sports and Outdoors's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Academy Sports and Outdoors is 30.32%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Annual Data
Trend Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only - - - - -

Academy Sports and Outdoors Quarterly Data
Jan18 Jan19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.500.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.500*12.485
=93.64

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(93.64-65.25)/93.64
=30.32 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Academy Sports and Outdoors  (NAS:ASO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Business Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1800 North Mason Road, Katy, TX, USA, 77449
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is engaged in the retail business of sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. The company offers outdoor clothing, backpacks, sunglasses, luggage items, shooting equipment, fishing equipment, boating and water sports equipment, backyard recreation products, outdoor cooking equipment, fitness equipment, electronic items, dog supplies, and other products.
Executives
Theresa Palermo director 12420 STONEBRIDGE RD, ROANKE IN 46783
Christopher Lee Turner director 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Sharen J Turney director THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Beryl Raff director 5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236
Thomas M Nealon director 6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Sherry L. Harriman officer: SVP, Logistics & Supply Chain C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 N MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Wendy A. Beck director C/O NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD., 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Kkr 2006 Allstar Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr 2006 Fund (allstar) L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Heather A. Davis officer: VP, Controller C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Allstar Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Allstar Co-invest Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jeffrey C. Tweedy director C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
William S. Ennis officer: See Remarks C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Allstar Co-invest Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001

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