Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $578.36 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-29), Chipotle Mexican Grill's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $578.36.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Chipotle Mexican Grill is -185.79%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill was 6.88. The lowest was 0.84. And the median was 2.68.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

201.66

Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 10.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 10.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 10.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $32.060.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.105)/(1+0.1) = 1.0045454545455
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

32.060

18.0399

578.36

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(578.36	-	1652.90)	/	578.36
	=	-185.79 %

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CMG:Mexico C9F:Germany

Address

610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1400, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660

Website

https://www.chipotle.com

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $7.5 billion in 2021. The Mexican concept is entirely company-owned, with a footprint of more than 3,000 stores, heavily indexed to the United States (though the firm maintains a small presence in Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany). Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.

Executives

Scott Harlan Maw	director	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Ali Namvar	director	C/O PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia Filikrushel	director	DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION, 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Robin S Hickenlooper	director	12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Gregg L Engles	director	1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Mary A Winston	director	557 BROADWAY, C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP, NEW YORK NY 10012
Matt Carey	director	11216 WAPLES MILL ROAD SUITE 100, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Mauricio Gutierrez	director	211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Neil Flanzraich	director	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137
Brian R Niccol	director, officer: Chairman, CEO	1 GLEN BELL WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Christopher W Brandt	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607
Laurie Schalow	officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Marissa Andrada	officer: Chief D&I and People Officer	C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Curtis E Garner	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC., 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Scott Boatwright	officer: Chief Restaurant Officer	1401 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202