Fox Factory Holding (Fox Factory Holding) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $116.25 (As of Today)

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As of today (2024-04-18), Fox Factory Holding's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $116.25.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Fox Factory Holding's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Fox Factory Holding is 63.93%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Fox Factory Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FOXF' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.35 Med: 0.75 Max: 1
Current: 0.36

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Fox Factory Holding was 1.00. The lowest was 0.35. And the median was 0.75.

FOXF's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
84.27% of 178 companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 0.765 vs FOXF: 0.36

Fox Factory Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Fox Factory Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Fox Factory Holding Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

109.12

170.17

172.74

128.00

Fox Factory Holding Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																172.74	167.58	165.86	145.94	128.00

Competitive Comparison

For the Auto Parts subindustry, Fox Factory Holding's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Fox Factory Holding Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fox Factory Holding's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fox Factory Holding's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.

Fox Factory Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.64%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Fox Factory Holding's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 21.40%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.720.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Fox Factory Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.720

31.2501

116.25

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(116.25	-	41.935)	/	116.25
	=	63.93 %

Fox Factory Holding (NAS:FOXF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Fox Factory Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Fox Factory Holding (Fox Factory Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Fox Factory Holding Corp (NAS:FOXF) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FF0:Germany FF0:Germany

Address

2055 Sugarloaf Circle, Suite 300, Duluth, GA, USA, 30097

Website

https://www.ridefox.com

Fox Factory Holding Corp is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of performance-defining products and systems used primarily on bikes, Side-by-Sides, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, ATVs, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. Its business operates under the FOX, FOX RACING SHOX, and RACE FACE brands. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from North Americas and also has a presence in Asia, Europe, and the Rest of the World.

Executives

Thomas E. Duncan	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Paul Stecher	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Michael C. Dennison	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Christopher Tutton	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 6634 HIGHWAY 53, BRASELTON GA 30517
Dennis Charles Schemm	officer: CFO & Treasurer	CONTINENTAL BUILDING PRODUCTS, 12950 WORLDGATE DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20170
Dudley W Mendenhall	director	5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Brendan Enick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Maggie Elizabeth Torres	officer: Interim CFO & Treasurer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Thomas L. Fletcher	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Elizabeth A Fetter	director	1400 MARINA WAY SOUTH, RICHMOND CA 94804
Richard T. Winters	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Scott Randall Humphrey	officer: CFO & TREASURER	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 6634 HIGHWAY 53, BRASELTON GA 30517
Toby D Merchant	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Larry L Enterline	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2709 WATER RIDGE PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Sidney Johnson	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097