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Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $430.63 (As of Today)
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As of today (2024-02-28), Lowe's's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $430.63.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Lowe's's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Lowe's is 45.34%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Lowe's's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

LOW' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.4   Med: 0.59   Max: 1.82
Current: 0.55

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Lowe's was 1.82. The lowest was 0.40. And the median was 0.59.

LOW's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
69.29% of 140 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.82 vs LOW: 0.55

Lowe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lowe's's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lowe's Annual Data
Trend Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 149.09 212.43 367.51 504.19 472.45

Lowe's Quarterly Data
Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 413.44 472.45 477.95 474.17 430.63

Competitive Comparison

For the Home Improvement Retail subindustry, Lowe's's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Lowe's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Lowe's's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lowe's's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Lowe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.28%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Lowe's's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 21.40%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $13.780.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Lowe's's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=13.780*31.2501
=430.63

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(430.63-235.39)/430.63
=45.34 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Lowe's  (NYSE:LOW) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Lowe's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Lowe's's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 Lowes Boulevard, Mooresville, NC, USA, 28117
Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, operating more than 1,700 stores in the United States, after the 2023 divestiture of its Canadian locations (RONA, Lowe's Canada, Réno-Dépôt, and Dick's Lumber). The firm's stores offer products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with maintenance and repair accounting for two thirds of products sold. Lowe's targets retail do-it-yourself (around 75% of sales) and do-it-for-me customers as well as commercial and professional business clients (around 25% of sales). We estimate Lowe's captures a low-double-digit share of the domestic home improvement market, based on U.S. Census data and management's market size estimates.
Executives
Janice Dupre Little officer: EVP Human Resources 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Joseph Michael Mcfarland officer: EVP, Stores 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Quonta D Vance officer: EVP, Pro & Home Services 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Donald Frieson officer: EVP, Supply Chain 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William P Boltz officer: EVP, Merchandising 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Seemantini Godbole officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Juliette Williams Pryor officer: EVP, CLO & Corp. Sec. 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Ross W Mccanless officer: SR VP Gen Counsel & Secretary
Scott H Baxter director 400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Taylor Colleen director C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1800 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Brandon J Sink officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Stone West Mary E director C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Daniel J Heinrich director CLOROX CO, 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
David H Batchelder director 1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Griggs Dan Clayton Jr officer: Vice President, CAO 1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117