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Automatic Data Processing Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $152.27 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-10), Automatic Data Processing's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $152.27.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Automatic Data Processing's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Automatic Data Processing is -65.80%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Automatic Data Processing's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ADP' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.87   Med: 1.38   Max: 2.26
Current: 1.65

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Automatic Data Processing was 2.26. The lowest was 0.87. And the median was 1.38.

ADP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
85.4% of 137 companies
in the Business Services industry
Industry Median: 0.80 vs ADP: 1.65

Automatic Data Processing Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Automatic Data Processing's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Automatic Data Processing Annual Data
Trend Jun13 Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 59.39 - 125.58 132.28 152.27

Automatic Data Processing Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 132.28 137.73 140.78 134.46 152.27

Automatic Data Processing Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 11.90%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 11.90% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 11.90%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $7.010.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Automatic Data Processing's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.119)/(1+0.09) = 1.0266055045872
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.010*21.7214
=152.27

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(152.27-252.47)/152.27
=-65.80 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Automatic Data Processing  (NAS:ADP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Automatic Data Processing Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Automatic Data Processing's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Automatic Data Processing Business Description

Automatic Data Processing logo
Address
One ADP Boulevard, Roseland, NJ, USA, 07068
ADP is a provider of payroll and human capital management solutions servicing the full scope of businesses from micro to global enterprises. ADP was established in 1949 and serves over 920,000 clients primarily in the United States. ADP's employer services segment offers payroll, HCM solutions, HR outsourcing, insurance and retirement services. The smaller but faster-growing PEO segment provides HR outsourcing solutions to small and midsize businesses through a co-employment model.
Executives
Goeckeler David director C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY SAN JOSE CA 95119
Blanchard Augusto J officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Sperduto James T officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Magliulo Virginia officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Quevedo Alexander officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Kwon David officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAD NJ 07068
D'ambrosio Christopher officer: Corp. VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Haynesworth Linnie M director 214 N TRYON STREET CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Brown Laura G officer: Corp. VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Keene Nazzic S director 1710 SAIC DRIVE MCLEAN VA 22102
Michaud Brian L. officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Desilva Joseph officer: Corp VP ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Katsoudas Francine S director ONE ADP BOULEVARD ROSELAND NJ 07068
Winters Kathleen A officer: Corp. VP 101 COLUMBIA ROAD MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Levin Matthew officer: Corp VP NEUSTAR, INC. 4600 CENTER OAK PLAZA STERLING VA 20166

Automatic Data Processing Headlines

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