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Canterbury Park Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $101.86 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-05-19), Canterbury Park Holding's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $101.86.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Canterbury Park Holding's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Canterbury Park Holding is 79.44%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Canterbury Park Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Canterbury Park Holding was 3.99. The lowest was 0.52. And the median was 0.93.


Canterbury Park Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Canterbury Park Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Canterbury Park Holding Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 17.07 8.71 - -

Canterbury Park Holding Quarterly Data
Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Canterbury Park Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20% which is NO less than 20% => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $2.680.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Canterbury Park Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.09) = 1.1009174311927
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.680*38.009
=101.86

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(101.86-20.94)/101.86
=79.44 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Canterbury Park Holding  (NAS:CPHC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Canterbury Park Holding Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Canterbury Park Holding's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Canterbury Park Holding Business Description

Canterbury Park Holding logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure NAICS : 711212 SIC : 7948
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1100 Canterbury Road, Shakopee, MN, USA, 55379
Canterbury Park Holding Corp is in the business of pari-mutuel wagering on horse races and unbanked card games at its canterbury park racetrack and card casino facility in Minnesota. The company has four operating segments. The horse racing segment represents pari-mutuel wagering operations on simulcast and lives horse races; the Card Casino segment represents unbanked card operations; the food and beverage segment includes concessions, catering, and events services provided at the Racetrack; and the development segment represents its real estate development operations. The firm generates a majority of its revenue from the Card Casino segment.
Executives
Chronister Mark director 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SOUTH SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Schenian Dale H director, 10 percent owner PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHENIAN DALE H a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Sampson Randall D director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Offerman Carin J director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: OFFERMAN CARIN J a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Dahlberg Burton F director 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Dehmer Randy J officer: Chief Financial Officer 1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Bausch Maureen Hooley director 1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Himle John Stefan director 1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Sampson Curtis A director, 10 percent owner PO BOX 777 S MAIN ST HECTOR MN 55342
Wolf Robert officer: Chief Financial Officer 1100 CANTERBURY RD. SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Kennedy Daniel J. officer: Senior VP of Operations 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Hochman Michael officer: Vice President - Card Casino 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SHAKOPEE MN 55379
Canterbury Park Holding Corp officer: Vice President - Racing 1100 CANTERBURY ROAD S. SHAKOPEE MN 55379
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