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Micron Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $118.85 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-12), Micron Technology's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $118.85.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Micron Technology's Predictability Rank is 4.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Micron Technology is 45.28%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Micron Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MU' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.25   Med: 0.97   Max: 6.46
Current: 0.55

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Micron Technology was 6.46. The lowest was 0.25. And the median was 0.97.

MU's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than
60.5% of 119 companies
in the Semiconductors industry
Industry Median: 0.70 vs MU: 0.55

Micron Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Micron Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Micron Technology Annual Data
Trend Aug12 Aug13 Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 58.54 156.11 80.59 38.23 76.01

Micron Technology Quarterly Data
Aug17 Nov17 Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 53.58 76.01 95.64 117.34 118.85

Micron Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $8.770.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Micron Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.09) = 0.96330275229358
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=8.770*13.5514
=118.85

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(118.85-65.04)/118.85
=45.28 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Micron Technology  (NAS:MU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Micron Technology Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Micron Technology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Micron Technology Business Description

Micron Technology logo
Industry
Address
8000 South Federal Way, Post Office Box 6, Boise, ID, USA, 83716-9632
Micron historically focused on designing and manufacturing DRAM for PCs. The firm then expanded into the NAND flash memory market. It increased its DRAM scale with the purchase of Elpida (completed in mid-2013) and Inotera (completed in December 2016). The firm's DRAM and NAND products tailored to PCs, data centers, smartphones, game consoles, automotives, and other computing devices.
Executives
Murphy Mark J. officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC 5725 DELPHI DRIVE TROY MI 48098
Beard Robert P officer: SVP, General Counsel&Secretary 8000 S. FEDERAL WAY BOISE ID 83716
Haynesworth Linnie M director 214 N TRYON STREET CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Allen Scott R. officer: CVP, Chief Accounting Officer 11690 N.W. 105TH STREET MIAMI FL 33178
Dugle Lynn A director 4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD CHANTILLY VA 20151
Marosvari Paul officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 8000 S. FEDERAL WAY BOISE ID 83716
Wright Mary Ann director 250 STEPHENSON HIGHWAY TROY MI 48083
Gomo Steven J director 495 E. JAVA DRIVE SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Mccarthy Mary Pat director 2704 WEST 112TH STREET LEAWOOD KS 66211
Bokan Michael W officer: SVP, WORLDWIDE SALES 8000 S FEDERAL WAY MS 1-557 BOISE ID 83716
Zinsner David officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer 1001 MURPHY RANCH ROAD MILPITAS CA 95035
Bhatia Manish H officer: EVP, Global Operations C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY SAN JOSE CA 95119
Sadana Sumit officer: EVP & Chief Business Officer 47544 AVALON HEIGHTS TERRACE FREMONT CA 94539
Mehrotra Sanjay officer: President & CEO C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION 3355 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 100 IRVINE CA 92612
Maddock Ernest E officer: CFO & VP, Finance LAM RESEARCH 4650 CUSHING PARKWAY FREMONT CA 94538

Micron Technology Headlines

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