TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $82.78 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-01), TE Connectivity's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $82.78.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

TE Connectivity's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for TE Connectivity is -47.96%.

The historical rank and industry rank for TE Connectivity's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

TEL' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.18 Med: 1.31 Max: 1.58
Current: 1.48

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of TE Connectivity was 1.58. The lowest was 1.18. And the median was 1.31.

TEL's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
76.07% of 305 companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 0.88 vs TEL: 1.48

TE Connectivity Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for TE Connectivity's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

TE Connectivity Annual Data

Trend

Sep13

Sep14

Sep15

Sep16

Sep17

Sep18

Sep19

Sep20

Sep21

Sep22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

93.26

TE Connectivity Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	93.26	87.39	82.78

TE Connectivity Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $6.630.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

TE Connectivity's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

6.630

12.485

82.78

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(82.78	-	122.48)	/	82.78
	=	-47.96 %

TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

TE Connectivity Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TE Connectivity's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » TE Connectivity Ltd (NYSE:TEL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T1EL34:Brazil

Address

Muhlenstrasse 26, Schaffhausen, CHE, CH-8200

Website

https://www.te.com

TE Connectivity is the largest electrical connector supplier in the world, supplying interconnect and sensor solutions to the transportation, industrial, and communications markets. With operations in 150 countries and over 500,000 stock-keeping units, TE Connectivity has a broad portfolio that forms the electrical architecture of its end customers' cutting-edge innovations.

Executives

Syaru Shirley Lin	director
Aaron Kyle Stucki	officer: Pres. Communications Solutions	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Lynn A Dugle	director	4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Dawn C Willoughby	director	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Kevin N Rock	officer: President, Industrial Solution	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
David M Kerko	director	C/O KKR, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shadrak W Kroeger	officer: Pres., Communications Solution	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Abhijit Y Talwalkar	director	ONE AMD PLACE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088
Heath A Mitts	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Tim Murphy	officer: SVP & CHRO	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Mark Trudeau	director	COVIDIEN PLC, 15 HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Carol Anthony Davidson	director
Laura Wright	director	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, P.O. BOX 36611, DALLAS TX 75235-1611
John S Jenkins	officer: EVP & General Counsel	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Bradley Alan Gambill	officer: SVP, Strategy & Business Dev.	1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312