Value Line (NAS:VALU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $46.97 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-21), Value Line's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $46.97.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Value Line's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Value Line is -1.32%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Value Line's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Value Line was 2.96. The lowest was 0.68. And the median was 0.96.

Value Line Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Value Line's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Value Line Annual Data

Trend

Apr13

Apr14

Apr15

Apr16

Apr17

Apr18

Apr19

Apr20

Apr21

Apr22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Value Line Quarterly Data
	Apr18	Jul18	Oct18	Jan19	Apr19	Jul19	Oct19	Jan20	Apr20	Jul20	Oct20	Jan21	Apr21	Jul21	Oct21	Jan22	Apr22	Jul22	Oct22	Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Value Line Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 15.30%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 15.30% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 15.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.880.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Value Line's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.153)/(1+0.1) = 1.0481818181818
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.880

24.9853

46.97

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(46.97	-	47.59)	/	46.97
	=	-1.32 %

Value Line (NAS:VALU) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Value Line Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Value Line (NAS:VALU) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Value Line Inc (NAS:VALU) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

551 Fifth Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10176-0001

Website

https://www.valueline.com

Value Line Inc is a U.S based company. It produces investment periodicals based on underlying research and making available copyright data, including ranking system and other information, to third parties under written agreements for use in third-party managed and marketed investment products and for other purposes. The company markets under well-known brands including Value Line, the Value Line logo, The Value Line Investment Survey, Smart Research, Smarter Investing and The Most Trusted Name in Investment Research. Its only operating segment being Publishing.

Executives

Glenn J. Muenzer	director	357 HARVARD COURT, EAST MEADOW NY 11554
Howard A Brecher	director, officer: Acting Chairman and Acting CEO	VALUE LINE 220 E 42ND ST, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mary Bernstein	director	220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Alfred R Fiore	director	1 ANGORA ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
William Edward Reed	director	12 KNORR STREET, NORWALK CT 06854
Stephen P Davis	director	57 EAST 95TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10128
Thomas Sarkany	director, officer: Secretary	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Robert M. Perkins,	director	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Ruth O. Legon,	director	220 EAST 42ND STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Janet Eakman	director	220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mitchell Eric Appel	officer: CFO	VALUE LINE INC, 220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edward J Shanahan	director	220 EAST 42 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Marianne B Asher	director
Arnold Bernhard & Co Inc	10 percent owner	220 EAST 42ND STREET 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Edgar A Buttner	director	C/O VALUE LINE, 220 E 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017